Browsing by Autor "A. Mano"

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    Estimation of Glacier Melt Water Contribution for Human Consumption in the Royal Andes Considering Temperature Measurement Errors
    (Scientific Research Publishing, 2014) V. Moya Quiroga; A. Mano; Yoshihiro ASAOKA; Keiko Udo; Shuichi KURE; J. Mendoza
    Glaciers from the West side of the Royal Andes are an important source of fresh water for some of the most important Bolivian cities like El Alto. Temperature is an important datum for hydrological modelling and for glacier melt estimation. All temperature measurement devices have some degree of uncertainty due to systematic errors; thus, any temperature measurement has some errors. It is important to estimate the influence of such errors on the results from hydrological models and the estimation of melt water. The present study estimates the melt water contribution from the glaciers Tuni and Huayna West as a source of water supply for human consumption of El Alto considering the errors from temperature measurements. The hydrologic response of the basins was simulated with a hydrologic model. The glacier melt contribution was estimated as the difference between the discharge from the current scenario (with glaciers) and the discharge from a scenario without glaciers. Several volumes of melt water were estimated considering the temperature measurement and its possible errors. The uncertainty of such melt water volume was addressed by performing a Monte Carlo analysis of the possible melt water. The melt water contribution from glacier Tuni and Huayna West during the hydrologic year 2011-2012 was between 1.37 × 106 m3 and 1.72 × 106 m3. Such water volume is enough to meet the yearly water demand of between 6.81% and 8.55% of El Alto.
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    Probabilistic estimation of glacier volume and glacier bed topography: the Andean glacier Huayna West
    (2013) V. Moya Quiroga; A. Mano; Yoshihiro ASAOKA; Keiko Udo; Shuichi KURE; J. Mendoza
    Abstract. Glacier retreat will increase sea level and decrease fresh water availability. Glacier retreat will also induce morphologic and hydrologic changes due to the formation of glacial lakes. Hence, it is important not only to estimate glacier volume, but also to understand the spatial distribution of ice thickness. There are several approaches for estimating glacier volume and glacier thickness. However, it is not possible to select an optimal approach that works for all locations. It is important to analyse the relation between the different glacier volume estimations and to provide confidence intervals of a given solution. The present study presents a probabilistic approach for estimating glacier volume and its confidence interval. Glacier volume of the Andean glacier Huayna West was estimated according to different scaling relations. Besides, glacier volume and glacier thickness were estimated assuming plastic behaviour. The present study also analysed the influence of considering a variable glacier density due to ice firn densification. It was found that the different estimations are described by a lognormal probability distribution. Considering a confidence level of 90%, the estimated glacier volume is 0.0275 km3 ± 0.0052 km3. Considering a confidence level of 90%, the estimated glacier thickness is 24.98 m with a confidence of ±4.67 m. The mean basal shear stress considering plastic behaviour is 82.5 kPa. The reconstruction of glacier bed topography showed the future formation of a glacier lake with a maximum depth of 32 m.