Browsing by Autor "Akira Mano"

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APPLICATION OF A TWO DIMENSIONAL FLOOD MODEL FOR DEFINING EVACUATION ZONES FOR CATTLE IN THE BOLIVIAN AMAZONIA
(2015) V. Moya Quiroga; Shuichi KURE; Keiko Udo; Akira Mano
River floods are natural disasters that affect millions of people every year. In addition, vast areas of floodplains used for cattle farming are inundated annually, and animals often drown. Depending on the floodplain characteristics, the floods can last for several days or even months. Even if the water depth is not sufficient to drown cattle, the long exposure to flood water may cause diseases. Thus, it is important to define safe zones and to identify safe routes for cattle to reach such zones. This study proposes flood evacuation zones for cattle in the Llanuras de Mojos (in the Bolivian Amazonia), based on the results of a two-dimensional flood simulation using a flood inundation model. Flood simulations provided the daily variation in the extent and depth of flooding. These results enabled flood hazard zones to be defined for cattle on different days. It was found that the left margin of the Mamore River was the most hazardous zone, with flood depths that were likely to drown cattle. The best evacuation route was identified as the right bank of the Mamore River located on the northern edge of the city of Trinidad.
Changes in the Hydrologic Design Discharges due to Climate Change: Bolivian Amazonia
(2016) V. Moya Quiroga; Shuichi KURE; Keiko Udo; Akira Mano
The Mamore river is the most important Bolivian river and one of the most important tributaries of the Amazon river. Engineers design flood control structures and water use plans considering hydrologic design discharges. Climate change will change the hydrological conditions. Thus, current hydrologic design discharges may not be valid for future conditions. Unfortunately, there are no studies about future streamflow conditions and future design discharges; hence, there is uncertainty about the future performance of flood control structures and water use plans. The present study analyzes the changes in the hydrological design discharges of the Mamore river due to climate change. The semidistributed hydrological model Supertank was used to simulate the streamflow of the Mamore considering current and future climatological conditions. Future conditions were simulated using downscaled projections of the WRF model based on projections from different general circulation models. Results show that future peak design discharges will increase between 11% and 16%. Future low flows show higher uncertainty. According to some projections future low flow will decrease 25%, while according to other projections future low flows will increase 30%.