Browsing by Autor "Cesar Daniel Vargas Diaz"

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The Economic Model of the Fixed Exchange Rate in Bolivia: Towards Price Stability and Economic Instability
(Science Publishing Group, 2024) Cesar Daniel Vargas Diaz; Hernán Delgadillo Dorado; Eloy Wilson Villca Copali
The objective of this article is to demonstrate and analyze whether the fixed exchange rate is a variable that benefits or harms the Bolivian economy in the short term, medium term and long term. Because it is a fundamental economic variable, mainly to keep prices stable, that is, low and controlled inflation in national prices, this fixed exchange rate has been frozen since 2011. In addition, it regulates or affects foreign trade, i.e., imports and exports, which have been dragging a deficit in the trade balance, which favors imports and smuggling to the detriment of national production and a growing informal labor market. The Bolivian economy is especially dependent on exports without specialization and added value, such as natural gas, minerals, mainly gold, legally and illegally, among others. In addition, the significant deterioration of macroeconomic variables, as reflected in historical data, such as the collapse of savings due to the gradual fall in net international reserves since 2014, leaving the vaults of the Central Bank of Bolivia with scarce reserves in gold and foreign currency, as well as the significant increase in internal and external public debt, Both of them have reached the Gross Domestic Product, at the same time, the increase in public spending in the public sector and public administration in general and the addition of public strategic companies, the latter seeking to replace imports of the productive apparatus, generating a more robust state apparatus and with levels of fiscal deficit recorded in the last ten years and taking into account the progressive subsidies for imports of fuels such as gasoline and diesel in the face of the growing demand for these fuels legally due to the growing vehicle fleet and illegally due to drug trafficking, generating a deficit in the balance of trade. Finally, the levels of corruption and country risk reflected in recent months by specialized institutions in 2023 show a deterioration of the Bolivian economy. Thus, this research will demonstrate the effects of the economic, social, community and productive model with a fixed exchange rate on the Bolivian economy and the effects on macroeconomic variables.
The Fall in Gas Exports, International Reserves and Economic Growth in Bolivia
(Science Publishing Group, 2023) Cesar Daniel Vargas Diaz; Hernán Delgadillo Dorado; Eloy Wilson Villca Copali
The objective of this article is to offer an overview of the deterioration of Bolivia's economic growth, in the period 2013 to 2022, mainly of the macroeconomic variables of study such as gross domestic product, natural gas exports, net international reserves, external debt and imports of diesel and gasoline fuels. Each of these variables are dependent on the foreign currency dollars. In this understanding, the deterioration is mainly due to the fall in gas exports since 2015 that the country's gas production falls because the government on duty, allocated more investment to exploitation than to exploration, generating a decrease in foreign exchange earnings dollars to the country, failing to cover subsidies for diesel and gasoline fuels imported in dollar foreign currency. This is mainly due to the fact that half of Bolivia's GDP growth in the last 15 years is due to the sale of gas to Brazil and Argentina in foreign currency in dollars, since it does not cover the subsidies of imported fuels with gas, net international reserves are used to exhaust them at their maximum level. At the same time, the gradual increase in external debt in foreign currency dollar. The fall in gas exports and the increase in imports of diesel and gasoline fuels due to the growth of the vehicle fleet, as reflected in historical data and where we identify the four stages of inflection. In the last stage, it was characterized with a shortage of dollars and a high demand for it by citizens and the government, added to the lack of transparency in the disclosure of information of net international reserves and dependence on non-renewable resources results in a deterioration of the economic growth of the gross domestic product. In addition, Bolivia is characterized by not promoting science, knowledge, qualified human capital, research, development and technological innovation, which led to a high level of informal employment and insufficient productive sustainability in foreign currency.
The Social, Economic and Financial Information of the Electronic Governments of Latin America
(Science Publishing Group, 2022) Cesar Daniel Vargas Diaz; Hernán Delgadillo Dorado; Eloy Wilson Villca Copali
In recent years, the governments of Latin America have been modernized with Information and Communication Technologies and especially with the Internet, this process is known as electronic government “e-government”, that is how the electronic governments of Latin America disclose information about their administration and management, as well as the services they offer by interacting with citizens through their web pages. However, there is a lack of disclosure of social, economic and financial information, which is essential given the lack of transparency in population data, high levels of indebtedness, inflation, lack of liquidity, low levels of budget execution, among others, and that are in the interest of the citizen. In this understanding, this research aims to analyze to what extent and how social, economic and financial information is disclosed online by the Ministries of Economy and Finance. For this, it was necessary to establish a questionnaire and indices to create a ranking of the most transparent countries in Latin America in disclosing said information through their electronic governments. The results show that the most transparent ministries are Brazil, Mexico and Chile and the least transparent ministries are the Dominican Republic and Venezuela.