Browsing by Autor "Christian Vincent"

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A Nonlinear Statistical Model for Extracting a Climatic Signal From Glacier Mass Balance Measurements
(Wiley, 2018) Christian Vincent; Álvaro Soruco; M Azam; Rubén Basantes-Serrano; Miriam Jackson; Bjarne Kjøllmoen; Emmanuel Thibert; Patrick Wagnon; Delphine Six; Antoine Rabatel
Abstract Understanding changes in glacier mass balances is essential for investigating climate changes. However, glacier‐wide mass balances determined from geodetic observations do not provide a relevant climatic signal as they depend on the dynamic response of the glaciers. In situ point mass balance measurements provide a direct signal but show a strong spatial variability that is difficult to assess from heterogeneous in situ measurements over several decades. To address this issue, we propose a nonlinear statistical model that takes into account the spatial and temporal changes in point mass balances. To test this model, we selected four glaciers in different climatic regimes (France, Bolivia, India, and Norway) for which detailed point annual mass balance measurements were available over a large elevation range. The model extracted a robust and consistent signal for each glacier. We obtained explained variances of 87.5, 90.2, 91.3, and 75.5% on Argentière, Zongo, Chhota Shigri, and Nigardsbreen glaciers, respectively. The standard deviations of the model residuals are close to measurement uncertainties. The model can also be used to detect measurement errors. Combined with geodetic data, this method can provide a consistent glacier‐wide annual mass balance series from a heterogeneous network. This model, available to the whole community, can be used to assess the impact of climate change in different regions of the world from long‐term mass balance series.
Atmospheric warming at a high‐elevation tropical site revealed by englacial temperatures at Illimani, Bolivia (6340 m above sea level, 16°S, 67°W)
(American Geophysical Union, 2010) Adrien Gilbert; Patrick Wagnon; Christian Vincent; Patrick Ginot; M. Funk
In June 1999, a deep (138.7 m) ice core was extracted from the summit glacier of Illimani, Bolivia (6340 m above sea level, 16°39′S, 67°47′W), and an englacial temperature profile was measured in the borehole. Using on‐site and regional meteorological data as well as ice core stratigraphy, past surface temperatures were reconstructed with a heat flow model. The englacial temperature measurements exhibit a profile that is far from a steady state, reflecting an increasing atmospheric temperature over several years and nonstationary climatic conditions. Englacial temperature interpretation, using air temperature data, borehole temperature inversion, and melting rate quantification based on ice core density, shows two warming phases from 1900 to 1960 (+0.5 ± 0.3 K starting approximately in 1920–1930) and from 1985 to 1999 (+0.6 ± 0.2 K), corresponding to a mean atmospheric temperature rise of 1.1 ± 0.2 K over the 20th century. According to various climate change scenarios, the future evolution of englacial temperatures was simulated to estimate when and under what conditions this high‐elevation site on the Illimani summit glacier could become temperate in the future. Results show that this glacier might remain cold for more than 90 years in the case of a +2 K rise over the 21st century but could become temperate in the first 20 m depth between 2050 and 2060 if warming reaches +5 K.
Can the snowline be used as an indicator of the equilibrium line and mass balance for glaciers in the outer tropics?
(Cambridge University Press, 2012) Antoine Rabatel; Ana Bermejo; Edwin Loarte; Álvaro Soruco; Jesús Gómez; Gonzalo Leonardini; Christian Vincent; Jean Emmanuel Sicart
Abstract Because the glacier snowline is easy to identify on optical satellite images and because in certain conditions it can be used as an indicator of the equilibrium line, it may be a relevant parameter for the study of the relationships between climate and glaciers. Although several studies have shown that the snowline altitude (SLA) at the end of the hydrological year is a good indicator of the equilibrium-line altitude (ELA) for mid-latitude glaciers, such a relationship remains conjectural for tropical glaciers. Indeed, unlike in mid-latitudes, tropical climate conditions result in a distinct seasonality of accumulation/ablation processes. We examine this relationship using direct field ELA and mass-balance measurements made on Glaciar Zongo, Bolivia (~16° S), vand Glaciar Artesonraju, Peru (~9° S), and the SLA retrieved from satellite images acquired in the past two decades. We show that on glaciers in the outer tropics: (1) ablation is reduced during the dry season in austral winter (May-August), the SLA does not change much, and satellite images acquired between May and August could be used to compute the SLA; and (2) the highest SLA detected on a number of satellite images acquired during the dry season provides a good estimate of the annual ELA. However, as snowfall events can occur during the dry season, the SLA detected on satellite images tends to underestimate the ELA. Thus, we recommend validating the SLA computed from satellite images with field data collected on a benchmark glacier before measuring the SLA on other glaciers in the same mountain range for which no field data are available. This study is a major step towards extending the measurement of glacier parameters (ELA and mass balance) at the scale of a whole mountain range in the outer tropics to better document the relationships between climate and glaciers.
Comment on tc-2022-70
(2022) RubÃ©n Basantes-Serrano; Antoine Rabatel; Bernard Francou; Christian Vincent; Álvaro Soruco; Thomas Condom; Jean Carlo RuÃz
Abstract. We present a comprehensive study of the evolution of the glaciers on the Antisana ice cap (tropical Andes) over the period 1956–2016. Based on geodetic observations of aerial photographs and high-resolution satellite images, we explore the effects of morpho-topographic and climate variables on glacier volumes. Contrasting behaviour was observed over the whole period, with two periods of strong mass loss, 1956–1964 (−0.72 m w.e. yr−1) and 1979–1997 (−0.82 m w.e. yr−1), and two periods with slight mass loss, 1965–1978 (0.10 m w.e. yr−1) and 1998–2016 (−0.26 m w.e. yr−1). There was a 42 % reduction in the total surface area of the ice cap. Individually, glacier responses were modulated by morpho-topographic variables (e.g. maximum and median altitude and surface area), particularly in the case of the small tongues located at low elevations (Glacier 1, 5 and 16) which have been undergoing accelerated disintegration since the 1990s and will likely disappear in the coming years. Moreover, thanks to the availability of aerial data, a surging event was detected on the Antisana Glacier 8 (G8) in the 2009–2011 period; such an event is extremely rare in this region and deserves a dedicated study. Despite the effect of the complex topography, glaciers have reacted in agreement with changes in climate forcing, with a stepwise transition towards warmer and alternating wet–dry conditions since the mid-1970s. Long-term decadal variability is consistent with the warm–cold conditions observed in the Pacific Ocean represented by the Southern Oscillation index.
Comment on tc-2022-70
(2022) Rubén Basantes-Serrano; Antoine Rabatel; Bernard Francou; Christian Vincent; Álvaro Soruco; Thomas Condom; Jean Carlo RuÃz
We present a comprehensive study of the evolution of the glaciers in the Antisana ice cap (tropical Andes) over the period 1956–2016. Based on geodetic observations of aerial photographs and high-resolution satellite images, we explore the effects of morpho-topographic and climate variables on glacier volumes. Contrasting behavior was observed over the whole period, with two periods of strong mass loss: 1956–1964 and 1979–1997, and two periods with slight mass loss: 1965–1978 and 1997–2016. There was a 42 % reduction in the total surface area of the ice cap. Individually, glacier responses were modulated by morpho-topographic variables (e.g., maximum and median altitude, and surface area), particularly in the case of the small tongues located at low elevations (Glacier 1, 5, and 16) which have been undergoing accelerated disintegration since the 1990s, and will likely disappear in the coming years. Moreover, thanks to the availability of aerial data, a surging event was detected in the Antisana G8 in the 2009–2011 period; such an event is extremely rare in this region and deserves a dedicated study. Despite the effect of the complex topography, glaciers react in agreement with changes in climate forcing, with a stepwise transition towards warmer and alternating wet/dry conditions since the mid-1970s. Long-term decadal variability is consistent with the warm/cold conditions observed in the Pacific Ocean represented by the Southern Oscillation Index.
COMPARACIÓN DE MÉTODOS PARA ESTIMAR EL BALANCE DE MASA DEL GLACIAR DE ZONGO, BOLIVIA (16º S, 68º O)
(Universidad Nacional de La Plata, 2014) Álvaro Soruco; Christian Vincent; Bernard Francou; Antoine Rabatel
La serie más larga y continua de mediciones de balance de masa en la Zona Intertropical de Sud América corresponden al glaciar de Zongo, Bolivia. Las mediciones fueron iniciadas en 1991, empleando tanto el método glaciológico como el hidrológico. Los resultados muestran discrepancias en los balances de masa obtenidos por ambos métodos. Con el objetivo de verificar estos balances de masa, se realizó un nuevo balance de masa mediante el método fotogramétrico, que fue comparado con los métodos glaciológico e hidrológico ya existentes. Los resultados de esta comparación entre balances de masa obtenidos con el método hidrológico y fotogramétrico son equivalentes, mientras que la comparación de los resultados obtenidos entre estos y el método glaciológico, están en desacuerdo. Esta diferencia, se atribuye a la imposibilidad de realizar mediciones adecuadas con el método glaciológico en las zonas de difícil acceso del glaciar de Zongo, las cuales son simplemente interpoladas en la estimación del balance de masa neto específico. Los resultados muestran, en general, que el glaciar Zongo ha estado muy cercano a un estadio de equilibrio entre 1956 y 1963; ganó masa entre 1963 y 1975 de manera significativa (3.86 m eq. agua) y a partir de 1975, los balances de masa son negativos. Por otra parte, se han extendido las observaciones del balance de masa del glaciar de Zongo para los últimos 50 años (1956-2006).
Contribution of glacier runoff to water resources of La Paz city, Bolivia (16° S)
(Cambridge University Press, 2015) Álvaro Soruco; Christian Vincent; Antoine Rabatel; Bernard Francou; Emmanuel Thibert; Jean Emmanuel Sicart; Thomas Condom
Abstract The supply of glacier water to La Paz city, Bolivia, between 1963 and 2006 was assessed at annual and seasonal timescales based on the mass-balance quantification of 70 glaciers located within the drainage basins of La Paz. Glaciers contributed ∼15% of water resources at an annual scale (14% in the wet season, 27% in the dry season). Uncertainties in our estimation are related to the assumed constant precipitation (∼0.5% for ice-free areas and up to 6.5% for glaciated areas), the constant runoff coefficient (∼1%), the surface areas of the glaciers and catchments (∼5%) and the mean mass-balance uncertainty of the 21 glaciers used to obtain the mass balance of the 70 glaciers (12% of the total discharge). Despite the loss of 50% of the glacierized area during the study period, runoff at La Paz did not change significantly, showing that increase in ice melt rates compensated for reduction in the surface area of the glaciers. In the future, assuming complete disappearance of the glaciers and no change in precipitation, runoff should diminish by ∼12% at an annual scale, 9% during the wet season and 24% during the dry season.
Glacier mass balance determination by remote sensing in the French Alps: progress and limitation for time series monitoring
(2004) J.-P. Dedieu; Antoine Rabatel; Christian Vincent; François Valla; Emmanuel Thibert; Yves Arnaud
This paper presents an approach founded on an indirect methodology to determine the distribution of mass balance at high spatial resolution using remote sensing and ground stakes measurements. A recent time series of images from optical and SAR data are selected on 3 outlet glaciers well suited in the French Alps to evaluate the accuracy of the computed mass balance. The method is based on the snowline determination as a proxy of the equilibrium line altitude (ELA). The key of the transfer is the activity coefficient (db/dz) for the annual mass balance calculation. Comparison between measured and computed mass balance provide a good correspondence (R/sup 2/=0.90) and allows extending the method on large-scale areas. The limitations are cloudiness for optical data and high slope distortion on SAR images.
Glacier mass balance reconstruction by remote sensing in the French alps : comparison with ground measurements
(2004) J.-P. Dedieu; Antoine Rabatel; Christian Vincent; Álvaro Soruco
The Alpine glaciers are sensitive to climate fluctuation, and glacier mass balance may be used as a proxy indicator of the regional climate change impacts. An indirect methodology is presented for determining the distribution of mass balance at high spatial resolution using remote sensing and ground stakes measurements. The method is based on the snowline determination as a proxy of the equilibrium line altitude (ELA) and the key of the transfer is the activity coefficient (db/dz) for the annual mass balance calculation. Three outlet glaciers well suited in the French Alps (ground stakes) were selected to evaluate the accuracy of the method for a short period (7 cycles) and extended for a longest period (15 cycles) for a glacier with limited ground measurements. The computed distribution of mass-balance compares well (R/sup 2/ = 0.90) with mass-balance measurements made at stakes installed along the glacier centre line for the short period.
New insights into the decadal variability in glacier volume of a tropical ice cap, Antisana (0°29′ S, 78°09′ W), explained by the morpho-topographic and climatic context
(Copernicus Publications, 2022) Rubén Basantes-Serrano; Antoine Rabatel; Bernard Francou; Christian Vincent; Álvaro Soruco; Thomas Condom; Jean Carlo Ruíz
Abstract. We present a comprehensive study of the evolution of the glaciers on the Antisana ice cap (tropical Andes) over the period 1956–2016. Based on geodetic observations of aerial photographs and high-resolution satellite images, we explore the effects of morpho-topographic and climate variables on glacier volumes. Contrasting behaviour was observed over the whole period, with two periods of strong mass loss, 1956–1964 (−0.72 m w.e. yr−1) and 1979–1997 (−0.82 m w.e. yr−1), and two periods with slight mass loss, 1965–1978 (0.10 m w.e. yr−1) and 1998–2016 (−0.26 m w.e. yr−1). There was a 42 % reduction in the total surface area of the ice cap. Individually, glacier responses were modulated by morpho-topographic variables (e.g. maximum and median altitude and surface area), particularly in the case of the small tongues located at low elevations (Glacier 1, 5 and 16) which have been undergoing accelerated disintegration since the 1990s and will likely disappear in the coming years. Moreover, thanks to the availability of aerial data, a surging event was detected on the Antisana Glacier 8 (G8) in the 2009–2011 period; such an event is extremely rare in this region and deserves a dedicated study. Despite the effect of the complex topography, glaciers have reacted in agreement with changes in climate forcing, with a stepwise transition towards warmer and alternating wet–dry conditions since the mid-1970s. Long-term decadal variability is consistent with the warm–cold conditions observed in the Pacific Ocean represented by the Southern Oscillation index.
New insights into the decadal variability in glacier volume of an iconic tropical ice-cap explained by the morpho-climatic context, Antisana, (0°29’ S, 78°09’ W)
(2022) Rubén Basantes-Serrano; Antoine Rabatel; Bernard Francou; Christian Vincent; Álvaro Soruco; Thomas Condom; Jean Carlo Ruíz
Abstract. We present a comprehensive study of the evolution of the glaciers in the Antisana ice cap (tropical Andes) over the period 1956–2016. Based on geodetic observations of aerial photographs and high-resolution satellite images, we explore the effects of morpho-topographic and climate variables on glacier volumes. Contrasting behavior was observed over the whole period, with two periods of strong mass loss: 1956–1964 and 1979–1997, and two periods with slight mass loss: 1965–1978 and 1997–2016. There was a 42 % reduction in the total surface area of the ice cap. Individually, glacier responses were modulated by morpho-topographic variables (e.g., maximum and median altitude, and surface area), particularly in the case of the small tongues located at low elevations (Glacier 1, 5, and 16) which have been undergoing accelerated disintegration since the 1990s, and will likely disappear in the coming years. Moreover, thanks to the availability of aerial data, a surging event was detected in the Antisana G8 in the 2009–2011 period; such an event is extremely rare in this region and deserves a dedicated study. Despite the effect of the complex topography, glaciers react in agreement with changes in climate forcing, with a stepwise transition towards warmer and alternating wet/dry conditions since the mid-1970s. Long-term decadal variability is consistent with the warm/cold conditions observed in the Pacific Ocean represented by the Southern Oscillation Index.
Reduced melt on debris-covered glaciers: investigations from Changri NupGlacier, Nepal
(Copernicus Publications, 2016) Christian Vincent; Patrick Wagnon; J. M. Shea; Walter W. Immerzeel; Philip Kraaijenbrink; Dibas Shrestha; Álvaro Soruco; Yves Arnaud; Fanny Brun; Étienne Berthier
Abstract. Approximately 25 % of the glacierized area in the Everest region is covered by debris, yet the surface mass balance of debris-covered portions of these glaciers has not been measured directly. In this study, ground-based measurements of surface elevation and ice depth are combined with terrestrial photogrammetry, unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) and satellite elevation models to derive the surface mass balance of the debris-covered tongue of Changri Nup Glacier, located in the Everest region. Over the debris-covered tongue, the mean elevation change between 2011 and 2015 is −0.93 m year−1 or −0.84 m water equivalent per year (w.e. a−1). The mean emergence velocity over this region, estimated from the total ice flux through a cross section immediately above the debris-covered zone, is +0.37 m w.e. a−1. The debris-covered portion of the glacier thus has an area-averaged mass balance of −1.21 ± 0.2 m w.e. a−1 between 5240 and 5525 m above sea level (m a.s.l.). Surface mass balances observed on nearby debris-free glaciers suggest that the ablation is strongly reduced (by ca. 1.8 m w.e. a−1) by the debris cover. The insulating effect of the debris cover has a larger effect on total mass loss than the enhanced ice ablation due to supraglacial ponds and exposed ice cliffs. This finding contradicts earlier geodetic studies and should be considered for modelling the future evolution of debris-covered glaciers.
Volume and frequency of ice avalanches from Taconnaz hanging glacier, French Alps
(Cambridge University Press, 2014) Christian Vincent; Emmanuel Thibert; M. Härter; Álvaro Soruco; Adrien Gilbert
Abstract Very large volumes of ice break off regularly from Taconnaz hanging glacier, French Alps. During winter, when the snow mantle is unstable, these collapses can trigger very large avalanches that represent a serious threat to inhabited areas below. Photogrammetric measurements have been performed over 1 year to assess the volume and frequency of the largest collapses. Major collapses occur when the glacier reaches a critical geometry. After a major ice collapse, the glacier is in a minimal position and subsequently recharges over 6 months to reach the maximum position again. This critical geometry is a necessary but not sufficient condition for further large collapses. Large collapses do not systematically occur in the maximum position, as ice is often removed by disintegration into small ice blocks. For two major collapses, the volume of ice breaking off has been assessed at ~275 000 m 3 . Photogrammetric measurements were used to determine an ice flux of 820 000 m 3 a –1 through the studied ice stream, in agreement with an assessment based on ice-flow modeling. This ice flux estimation was used to determine the average ice volumes breaking off over surveyed periods.