Browsing by Autor "Crystal A. Kolden"

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Climatic influences on interannual variability in regional burn severity across western US forests
(CSIRO Publishing, 2017) John T. Abatzoglou; Crystal A. Kolden; Park Williams; James A. Lutz; Alistair M. S. Smith
Interannual variability in burn severity is assessed across forested ecoregions of the western United States to understand how it is influenced by variations in area burned and climate during 1984–2014. Strong correlations (|r| &gt; 0.6) between annual area burned and climate metrics were found across many of the studied regions. The burn severity of individual fires and fire seasons was weakly, but significantly (P &lt; 0.05), correlated with burned area across many regions. Interannual variability in fuel dryness evaluated with fuel aridity metrics demonstrated weak-to-moderate (|r| &gt;0.4) relationships with regional burn severity, congruent with but weaker than those between climate and area burned for most ecoregions. These results collectively suggest that irrespective of other factors, long-term increases in fuel aridity will lead to increased burn severity in western United States forests for existing vegetation regimes.
Human-related ignitions concurrent with high winds promote large wildfires across the USA
(CSIRO Publishing, 2018) John T. Abatzoglou; Jennifer K. Balch; Bethany A. Bradley; Crystal A. Kolden
Large wildfires (&gt;40 ha) account for the majority of burned area across the contiguous United States (US) and appropriate substantial suppression resources. A variety of environmental and social factors influence wildfire growth and whether a fire overcomes initial attack efforts and becomes a large wildfire. However, little is known about how these factors differ between lightning-caused and human-caused wildfires. This study examines differences in temperature, vapour pressure deficit, fuel moisture and wind speed for large and small lightning- and human-caused wildfires during the initial days of fire activity at ecoregion scales across the US. Large fires of both human and lightning origin occurred coincident with above-normal temperature and vapour pressure deficit and below-normal 100-hour dead fuel moisture compared with small fires. Large human-caused wildfires occurred, on average, coincident with higher wind speeds than small human-caused wildfires and large lightning-caused wildfires. These results suggest the importance of winds in driving rapid fire growth that can allow fires to overcome many of the factors that typically inhibit large human-caused fires. Additionally, such findings highlight the interplay between human activity and meteorological conditions and the importance of incorporating winds in modelling large-fire risk in human-dominated landscapes.
Relationships between climate and macroscale area burned in the western United States
(CSIRO Publishing, 2013) John T. Abatzoglou; Crystal A. Kolden
Increased wildfire activity (e.g. number of starts, area burned, fire behaviour) across the western United States in recent decades has heightened interest in resolving climate–fire relationships. Macroscale climate–fire relationships were examined in forested and non-forested lands for eight Geographic Area Coordination Centers in the western United States, using area burned derived from the Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity dataset (1984–2010). Fire-specific biophysical variables including fire danger and water balance metrics were considered in addition to standard climate variables of monthly temperature, precipitation and drought indices to explicitly determine their optimal capacity to explain interannual variability in area burned. Biophysical variables tied to the depletion of fuel and soil moisture and prolonged periods of elevated fire-danger had stronger correlations to area burned than standard variables antecedent to or during the fire season, particularly in forested systems. Antecedent climate–fire relationships exhibited inter-region commonality with area burned in forested lands correlated with winter snow water equivalent and emergent drought in late spring. Area burned in non-forested lands correlated with moisture availability in the growing season preceding the fire year. Despite differences in the role of antecedent climate in preconditioning fuels, synchronous regional fire activity in forested and non-forested lands suggests that atmospheric conditions during the fire season unify fire activity and can compound or supersede antecedent climatic stressors. Collectively, climate–fire relationships viewed through the lens of biophysical variables provide a more direct link to fuel flammability and wildfire activity than standard climate variables, thereby narrowing the gap in incorporating top-down climatic factors between empirical and process-based fire models.
Relative importance of weather and climate on wildfire growth in interior Alaska
(CSIRO Publishing, 2011) John T. Abatzoglou; Crystal A. Kolden
Efforts to quantify relationships between climate and wildfire in Alaska have not yet explored the role of higher-frequency meteorological conditions on individual wildfire ignition and growth. To address this gap, meteorological data for 665 large fires that burned across the Alaskan interior between 1980 and 2007 were assessed to determine the respective influence of higher-frequency weather and lower-frequency climate, in terms of both antecedent and post-ignition conditions on fire growth. Antecedent climate exhibited no discernable influence on eventual fire size. In contrast, fire size was sensitive to weather in the days to weeks following ignition, particularly the post-ignition timing of precipitation. Prolonged periods of warm and dry conditions coincident with blocking that persists for several weeks after ignition enabled growth of large wildfires, whereas the return of wetting precipitation generally within a week after ignition inhibited growth of smaller wildfires. These results suggest that daily weather data are a critical predictor of fire growth and large fire potential and encourage their use in fire management and modelling.