Browsing by Autor "J. A. Cuellar"

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Effect of Initial Inoculum on the Temporal and Spatial Dynamics of Wheat Blast Under Field Conditions in Bolivia
(American Phytopathological Society, 2024) Carlos Góngora‐Canul; Alexandria Volkening; J. A. Cuellar; Lidia Calderón; Mariela Fernández-Campos; Da-Young Lee; Jorge David Salgado; Andres Cruz-Sancan; C. D. Cruz
Epidemiological studies to better understand wheat blast (WB) spatial and temporal patterns were conducted in three field environments in Bolivia between 2019 and 2020. The temporal dynamics of wheat leaf blast (WLB) and spike blast (WSB) were best described by the logistic model compared with the Gompertz and exponential models. The nonlinear logistic infection rates were higher under defined inoculation in experiments two and three than under undefined inoculation in experiment one, and they were also higher for WSB than for WLB. The onset of WLB began with a spatial clustering pattern according to autocorrelation analysis and Moran's index values, with higher severity and earlier onset for defined than for undefined inoculation until the last sampling time. The WSB onset did not start with a spatial clustering pattern; instead, it was detected later until the last sampling date across experiments, with higher severity and earlier onset for defined than for undefined inoculation. Maximum severity (Kmax) was 1.0 for WSB and less than 1.0 for WLB. Aggregation of WLB and WSB was higher for defined than for undefined inoculation. The directionality of hotspot development was similar for both WLB and WSB, mainly occurring concentrically for defined inoculation. Our results show no evidence of synchronized development but suggest a temporal and spatial progression of disease symptoms on wheat leaves and spikes. Thus, we recommend that monitoring and management of WB should be considered during early growth stages of wheat planted in areas of high risk.
Multiscale temporal and spatiotemporal analysis of wheat blast infection‐like dynamics using vertical plant stratification, regression and Markov chain approaches
(Wiley, 2023) J. Garcia‐Peña; Joaquín Guillermo Ramírez‐Gil; Carlos Góngora‐Canul; Lidia Calderón; J. A. Cuellar; C. D. Cruz
Abstract The spatiotemporal progress of wheat blast (WB) epidemics within the plant canopy remains poorly known due to complex pathogen–host–environment interactions. Although deterministic methods are popular and useful, robust stochastic methods, such as generalized additive models for location, scale and shape (GAMLSS) and probability matrix or Markov transition model (MTM), have seldom been used to analyse plant disease epidemics. Hence, both methods were employed to derive valuable insights into WB epidemiology at the vertical canopy level. We conducted experiments in three climatic zones in Bolivia, using three wheat cultivars, with disease data corresponding to different canopy positions (lower, L; middle, M; flag leaf, F; and spike, S). Using WB severity data (AUDPC, progress rate and maximum severity [ K max ]), we implemented the GAMLSS and MTM to test our hypothesis that WB is affected by host resistance, location and canopy level. Results showed that the AUDPC, progress rate and K max differed across sites, cultivars and canopy positions. Clearly, L and M canopies showed a lower progress rate than F and S. The disease showed an ascending movement from L and M canopies to F and S across locations and cultivars. However, descending transitions also occurred from M to L early or F to M canopy later in the season. Both ascending and descending movements can arise at a single state or several recurrent states, indicating indirect evidence of autoinfection within the canopy before and after spike emergence. Our findings contribute knowledge to improve monitoring and managing WB.