Browsing by Autor "Luis Fernando Escobar Caba"

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Internal and External Shocks and Economic Policy Innovations in Bolivia: A General Approach
(2021) Roger Alejandro Banegas Rivero; Marco Alberto Núñez Ramírez; Jorge Salas Vargas; Luis Fernando Escobar Caba; Irma Guadalupe Esparza García
This paper contributes to quantifying the severity of various types of shocks for one small open economy. The role of fiscal policy was evaluated along with monetary and exchange rate innovations and the findings reflect the relevance of domestic and external shocks. These estimates show that productivity shocks explain about 90% of real variables in the economy. Regarding external shocks, the presence of oil perturbance affects approximately one-third of the fiscal balance behavior. Finally, the main instrument of economic policy is related to public investment innovations that cause more than the 50% of the real variables, especially as an instrument for economic crisis.
LANDLOCKED COUNTRIES, NATURAL RESOURCES AND GROWTH: THE DOUBLE ECONOMIC CURSE HYPOTHESIS
(EconJournals, 2019) Roger Alejandro Banegas Rivero; Marco Alberto Núñez Ramírez; Jorge Salas Vargas; Luis Fernando Escobar Caba; Sacnicté Valdez del Río
In this paper, we discuss the hypothesis of a double effect of economic slowdown on economic growth, resulting by the income of natural resources and being a landlocked country. We considered the problem of heterogeneity as conditioned functions to quantile moments in response of economic growth. To do this, groups of 97 countries are considered for the period 1970-2014. The results suggest that the “double economic curse” presents an annual impact of -3% in quantiles of medium-low growth countries. Subsequently, additive effects between human capital and trade openness are evaluated to mitigate the lag impacts on growth: decreasing approximately between 20% and 40% of the negative effect for low growth countries and contracting around 10% and 50% for countries with medium growth rates. K eywords : Landlocked countries, economic growth, natural resources, human capital, trade openness, quantile regressions. JEL Classifications: O43, O47, O57, P48, C21 DOI: https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.8037
Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Policy during the Covid-19 Crisis: Evidence from Bolivia at a Regional Level
(Our Lady of the Rosary University, 2023) Miguel Sebastiano Chalup Calmotti; Luis Fernando Escobar Caba
This paper evaluates the impact of the fiscal policy applied in Bolivia during the Covid-19 crisis at a regional level. It includes two analyses: the economic slowdown at a regional level analyzed through a mixed frequency Bayesian var with a stochastic volatility model, and the impact and effectiveness of the fiscal policy using a time-varying parameter var model. The results indicate that the pandemic had a heterogeneous effect on the region’s economic activity and the capital expenditure from the national treasury was the most effective fiscal policy to reduce the recessive effects of the crisis. We also noted that some regions positively reacted to regional and local government capital expenditure.
Volatilidad en los depósitos bancarios en Bolivia: GARCH simétrico y asimétrico
(Universidad Católica Boliviana San Pablo, 2024) Luis Fernando Escobar Caba; Roger Alejandro Banegas Rivero
La hipótesis del presente trabajo se fundamenta en que los modelos asimétricos de volatilidad autorregresiva condicional heterocedástico se ajustan en mejor medida al momento de analizar el riesgo de liquidez que los modelos simétricos. En un escenario de iliquidez en el sistema financiero, la reacción de los agentes económicos es sensible a las buenas y malas noticias de la coyuntura económica y política en el país, generando pánicos financieros que pueden dar lugar a un aumento de la demanda de efectivo (escenario de riesgo sistémico). Los resultados señalan que los modelos dinámicos de volatilidad asimétricos GJR (1,1) y APARCH (1,1) brindan mejor especificación para predecir la volatilidad de los depósitos a la vista y cajas de ahorro respectivamente. Así también, las estimaciones de los modelos simétricos se ajustan mejor a una distribución t de Student en las innovaciones, en comparación a la distribución normal y de error generalizado.