Browsing by Autor "Michael Diego Lizarazu Rojas"

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    An Application of the RegCM4 System to Quantify the Effects of Climate Change on the Hydric Potential of the Angostura-Bolivia Basin
    (Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute, 2024) Michael Diego Lizarazu Rojas; Walter Antonio Abujder Ochoa; Luis E. Montenegro Terrazas; Marko Andrade Uzieda; Oriana Palma Calabokis; Yamid E. Núñez de la Rosa; Jorge E. Nava Sejas
    Climate change (CC) impacts on hydrology pose significant global concerns due to their effects on water availability, thereby impacting various human activities reliant on this essential resource. This study assesses the influence of CC on the water supply in the Angostura-Bolivia basin. We employed the RegCM4 system, which develops its own regional climate models (RCMs) tailored to the Angostura basin using specific convective schemes, diverging from reliance on pre-existing RCMs, like those provided by CORDEX. Methodologically, the study involves hydrometeorological data collection and analysis, utilizing dynamic and statistical downscaling methods to refine the RCMs derived from ERA-Interim reanalysis data. Subsequently, precipitation and temperature projections are generated under CC scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) for both near (2045–2055) and far (2065–2075) future periods, compared to the historical period (1981–2010). The final stage employs the HydroBID system to project future runoff, considering both perturbed and unperturbed hydrometeorological data under CC effects. The analysis of flow duration curves for 50%, 75%, and 90% exceedance probabilities reveals a significant reduction in flows across all scenarios, indicating a noteworthy impact on water availability. These findings underscore the urgency of comprehending and adapting to CC on hydrology, emphasizing the critical importance of sustainable water resource management amidst evolving climatic conditions.
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    The theory of complexity and construction management: An analysis of perception and impact on the construction industry in Brazil and Bolivia
    (EDP Sciences, 2024) Walter Antonio Abujder Ochoa; Moisés Alejandro Sánchez Málaga; Michael Diego Lizarazu Rojas; Angela Gabriela Torrico Arce; Alfredo Iarozinski Neto
    The theory of complexity derived from systems theory emphasizes complex systems and their dynamic interactions with their environment. In this sense, in project management, this theory offers invaluable perspectives, where systems involve diverse components working towards a common objective. The construction sector is facing challenges in managing project complexity, and effective strategies are required to ensure success. While projects are often perceived as predictable, the reality of construction complexity demands a shift in perspective. Currently, the linear view of construction processes is being challenged, advocating for recognizing projects as nonlinear and dynamic phenomena. This study aims to explore the application of complexity theory in construction project management, focusing on differences in complexity perception between Cochabamba and the Metropolitan Region of Curitiba. Discriminant Analysis does not reveal a significant disparity in complexity perception between the two regions, with variables such as uncertainty about the subsoil having the most influence on complexity perception.