Browsing by Autor "Nicolai Suppa"

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Global multidimensional poverty and COVID-19: A decade of progress at risk?
(Elsevier BV, 2021) Sabina Alkire; Ricardo Nogales; Natalie Naïri Quinn; Nicolai Suppa
According to the global Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI), an internationally comparable measure, poverty in developing countries has fallen substantially over the last 15 years. The COVID-19 pandemic and associated economic contraction are negatively impacting multiple dimensions of poverty and jeopardising this progress. This paper uses recent assessments of food insecurity and school closures made by UN agencies to inform microsimulations of potential short-term impacts of the pandemic under alternative scenarios. These simulations use the nationally representative datasets underlying the 2020 update of the global MPI. Because these datasets were collected in various years before the pandemic, we develop models to translate the simulated impacts to 2020. Our approach accounts for the country-specific joint distribution of deprivations in the simulations, recent poverty reduction trends, and resulting differences in the responsiveness of the global MPI to the scenarios. Aggregating results across 70 countries that account for 89% of the global poor according to the 2020 global MPI, we find that the potential setback to multidimensional poverty reduction is between 3.6 and 9.9 years under the alternative scenarios. We argue that the extent to which such disruptions result in persistent increases of poverty and deprivations may be attenuated by appropriate policy responses.
On track or not? Projecting the global Multidimensional Poverty Index
(Elsevier BV, 2023) Sabina Alkire; Ricardo Nogales; Natalie Naïri Quinn; Nicolai Suppa
This paper proposes a framework for modelling projections of multidimensional poverty. We use recently published repeated observations of multidimensional poverty, based on time-consistent indicators, for 75 countries. We consider and evaluate different approaches to model these countries’ trajectories of poverty reduction. Our preferred model respects theoretical bounds, is supported by empirical evidence, and ensures consistency of our main measure with its subindices. In our empirical analysis we first use this approach to assess whether countries are on track to halve poverty incidence between 2015 and 2030 if recent trends continue – 51 are – before assessing the reasonableness of this target. Subsequently, we discuss implications of our modelling framework for computing projections under sustained efforts, setting poverty reduction targets, and the evaluation of trajectory changes. These implications mainly follow from the bounded nature of our outcome variables and are, therefore, applicable to a wide array of development indicators.
On Track or Not? Projecting the Global Multidimensional Poverty Index
(RELX Group (Netherlands), 2022) Sabina Alkire; Ricardo Nogales; Natalie Naïri Quinn; Nicolai Suppa
Revising the Global Multidimensional Poverty Index: Empirical Insights and Robustness
(Wiley, 2022) Sabina Alkire; Usha Kanagaratnam; Ricardo Nogales; Nicolai Suppa
The global Multidimensional Poverty Index, published annually since 2010, captures acute multidimensional poverty in the developing world. In 2018, five of its ten indicators were revised with the purpose of aligning the index to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) insofar as current data permit. This paper provides comprehensive analyses of the consequences of this revision from three perspectives. First, we thoroughly discuss new empirical insights for 105 countries in the developing world based on a data set including 8.78 million individual observations. Second, we analyze the robustness of country orderings to changes in key parameters, including the poverty cutoff and dimensional weights. Third, we compare the revised and the original specifications by implementing both on the same 105 national data sets. The country orderings in the revised specification are found to be robust to a range of plausible parametric alternatives. Largely, these country orderings are at least as robust as the original one.