Browsing by Autor "Pascual Restrepo"

Filter results by typing the first few letters
Now showing 1 - 2 of 2
  • Thumbnail Image
    Item type: Item ,
    On the Effects of Enforcement on Illegal Markets: Evidence from a Quasi-experiment in Colombia
    (2015) Daniel Mejía; Pascual Restrepo; Sandra Rozo
    This paper studies the effects of enforcement on illegal behavior in the context of a large aerial spraying program designed to curb coca cultivation in Colombia. In 2006, the Colombian government pledged not to spray a 10 km band around the frontier with Ecuador due to diplomatic frictions arising from the possibly negative collateral effects of this policy on the Ecuadorian side of the border. This variation is used to estimate the effect of spraying on coca cultivation by regression discontinuity around the 10 km threshold and by conditional differences in differences. The results suggest that spraying one additional hectare reduces coca cultivation by 0.022 to 0.03 hectares; these effects are too small to make aerial spraying a cost-effective policy for reducing cocaine production in Colombia.
  • Thumbnail Image
    Item type: Item ,
    Scarcity without Leviathan: The Violent Effects of Cocaine Supply Shortages in the Mexican Drug War
    (The MIT Press, 2018) J. C. Castillo; Daniel Mejía; Pascual Restrepo
    Abstract This paper asks whether scarcity increases violence in markets that lack a centralized authority. We construct a model in which, by raising prices, scarcity fosters violence. Guided by our model, we examine this effect in the Mexican cocaine trade. At a monthly frequency, scarcity created by cocaine seizures in Colombia, Mexico's main cocaine supplier, increases violence in Mexico. The effects are larger in municipalities near the United States, with multiple cartels and with strong support for PAN (the incumbent party). Between 2006 and 2009 the decline in cocaine supply from Colombia could account for 10% to 14% of the increase in violence in Mexico.