Browsing by Autor "Roger Alejandro Banegas Rivero"

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Business cycle, asymmetries and non-linearity: The Bolivian case
(Centre of Sociological Research, Szczecin, Poland, 2020) Roger Alejandro Banegas Rivero; Marco Alberto Núñez Ramírez; Sacnicté Valdez del Río
In this paper, we deal with the problem of measuring business cycles: short, medium or long-term, with both theoretical and empirical discussions on the regularity of fluctuations versus asymmetries in their measurement phases. To achieve this, the approach is based on the combination of deviations on the level of trends (alternative filters) with the algorithm of At the same time, effective rates of economic growth by Markov's chains was considered in order to identify non-linear regimes of expansion and economic contraction. Finally, quantifications on the natural rate of growth for Bolivia are offered under a sustained expansion regime from 1950 to 2015. The results suggest that due to asymmetries and the manner in which the business cycle is measured, we observe longer duration of a business cycle when it was measured from busts rather than from booms.
Choques de Precios de Recursos Naturales, Asignaciones al Gasto Público y Posición Fiscal: una Ilustración con Bolivia
(Universidad Michoacana de San Nicolás de Hidalgo, 2017) Roger Alejandro Banegas Rivero; Reyna Vergara González
En este documento se evalúan los choques de precios de recursos naturales, asícomo el rol de la asignación de los ingresos fiscales sobre la posición fiscal de Bolivia, país dependiente de gas natural con base en información trimestral: 2003-2011 (período de auge de precios). Al emplear la metodología SVAR, se ejemplifica −con un caso− al demostrar que la asignación de ingresos fiscales al gasto público ejerce un rol más relevante que las perturbaciones de precios en el recurso natural para distintas mediciones de balances fiscales; asimismo, se evalúan las respuestas del gasto público desagregado en términos de presión fiscal.
Economic Uncertainty and its Effects in Bolivia
(2022) Roger Alejandro Banegas Rivero; Marco Alberto Núñez Ramírez; Irma Guadalupe Esparza García; Altayra Geraldine Ozuna Beltrán
The paper's primary finding reveals that there are three factors related to the level of Bolivian economic uncertainty. These were interpreted as: i) uncertainty of economic expectations; ii) uncertainty of monetary and exchange rate policy; iii) political and social uncertainty. The contribution of each factor was found to account for approximately one-third of the total uncertainty; however, due to the incidence of the searches, the uncertainty factor in the monetary exchange rate policy showed greater contemporaneous synchronization with the general level by using multivariate techniques monthly for the period from January 2004 to December 2020. The estimated index captured negative variations for uncertainty during times of economic boom and growth, and it reflected positive variations of uncertainty in times of economic slowdown, low commodity prices, persistent fiscal and external deficits, as well as drops in net international reserves. Finally, by estimating a structural VAR model (SVAR), a direct relationship was found between global (external) economic uncertainty and domestic (internal) economic uncertainty, which slows national economic activity by -0.65%, interpreted as a retarding factor for economic growth.
Evaluación de escenarios fiscales para Bolivia
(Universidad Católica Boliviana San Pablo, 2019) Roger Alejandro Banegas Rivero; Reyna Vergara González
     En este documento se evaluaron escenarios de reglas fiscales aplicables para paises en desarrollo que son dependientes de recursos naturales. Se empleo un enfoque de trayectorias, tambien llamado Fan-Chart (grafico de abanicos) para la deuda publica de Bolivia, dependiente del gas natural. La metodologia consistio en un pronostico fuera de muestra (cinco anos) comparado con los niveles observados (2012-2016). Los resultados sugirieron que, sin la presencia de regla fiscal, la deuda publica se aproximo al maximo nivel de endeudamiento del pronostico aleatorio. Con la perspectiva de evidenciar menor nivel de deuda, los ingresos del recurso natural se deben canalizar en determinados niveles hacia el gasto de capital, limitando el gasto corriente y fijando limites en el deficit fiscal. Al introducir una regla fiscal se reduce la volatilidad de la deuda publica en comparacion con un escenario base (sin regla fiscal).       
Interaction of Economic Policy. Lessons on Social Welfare and Risk Premium
(2021) Roger Alejandro Banegas Rivero
The Purpose of this paper is to quantify the impacts on social welfare and risk premium, by combination and alternatives to interactions of economic policy: fiscal-monetary, fiscal-exchange and monetary for the Bolivian case. There are also considered unidirectional economic policies with counterfactual analysis without interaction. The estimates are presented by a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model with the incorporation of Bayesian structural autoregressive vectors (SVAR). The findings suggest that the fiscal-monetary interaction generates 79% of variability in social welfare, while the unidirectional exchange rate policy is a relevant factor for Risk premium of more than 84%. In the absence of economic policy interaction, productivity shocks are the most relevant.
Internal and External Shocks and Economic Policy Innovations in Bolivia: A General Approach
(2021) Roger Alejandro Banegas Rivero; Marco Alberto Núñez Ramírez; Jorge Salas Vargas; Luis Fernando Escobar Caba; Irma Guadalupe Esparza García
This paper contributes to quantifying the severity of various types of shocks for one small open economy. The role of fiscal policy was evaluated along with monetary and exchange rate innovations and the findings reflect the relevance of domestic and external shocks. These estimates show that productivity shocks explain about 90% of real variables in the economy. Regarding external shocks, the presence of oil perturbance affects approximately one-third of the fiscal balance behavior. Finally, the main instrument of economic policy is related to public investment innovations that cause more than the 50% of the real variables, especially as an instrument for economic crisis.
Landlocked Countries, Institutions and Economic Dynamics
(2020) Roger Alejandro Banegas Rivero; Marco Alberto Núñez Ramírez; Yesenia Clark Mendívil
This study moves away from the use of conventional methods such as standard regressions to evaluate the hypothesis of a negative effect of a landlocked country on economic growth and other variables. An alternative approach was used based on a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model (DSGE). The main estimation reflected a permanent shock of -2% on Non-Maritime Gross Domestic Product. To this end, the model was calibrated with parameters of the Bolivian economy (landlocked country) and the presence of similar behavioral economies with sea presence in observational equivalence (comparative countries) for impact evaluation purposes. Likewise, the role of institutional quality represented approximately 20% in the variability of the country's aggregate production (GDP), with the inference that institutional innovations could reduce and mitigate by 68% the negative effect of being a landlocked condition (mitigating action and structural challenge).
LANDLOCKED COUNTRIES, NATURAL RESOURCES AND GROWTH: THE DOUBLE ECONOMIC CURSE HYPOTHESIS
(EconJournals, 2019) Roger Alejandro Banegas Rivero; Marco Alberto Núñez Ramírez; Jorge Salas Vargas; Luis Fernando Escobar Caba; Sacnicté Valdez del Río
In this paper, we discuss the hypothesis of a double effect of economic slowdown on economic growth, resulting by the income of natural resources and being a landlocked country. We considered the problem of heterogeneity as conditioned functions to quantile moments in response of economic growth. To do this, groups of 97 countries are considered for the period 1970-2014. The results suggest that the “double economic curse” presents an annual impact of -3% in quantiles of medium-low growth countries. Subsequently, additive effects between human capital and trade openness are evaluated to mitigate the lag impacts on growth: decreasing approximately between 20% and 40% of the negative effect for low growth countries and contracting around 10% and 50% for countries with medium growth rates. K eywords : Landlocked countries, economic growth, natural resources, human capital, trade openness, quantile regressions. JEL Classifications: O43, O47, O57, P48, C21 DOI: https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.8037
Structural Relationship among Intellectual Capital Dimensions
(kassel university press, 2017) Marco Núñez; Joaquin Nunez; Roger Alejandro Banegas Rivero; María Nélida Sánchez Bañuelos
The purpose of this research is to address the degree of association among intellectual capital dimensions (human capital, structural capital and relational capital). For this reason, a quantitative methodology and a non-experimental design were used. Using Pearson correlation, structural equation modeling and linear regression we tested the study hypotheses. Through a sample of 103 companies from Cajeme, Mexico, a positive and significant association was found among intellectual capital dimensions, whose results provided empirical evidence that human capital can explain to structural capital and relational capital in organizations.
The Foreign Saving Moderating Effect on Public Spending in Mexico
(Universidad Michoacana de San Nicolás de Hidalgo, 2019) Roger Alejandro Banegas Rivero; Andrés Blancas Neria
En este documento se evalúan los efectos del gasto público sobre el crecimiento económico y el bienestar social en México mediante un modelo de equilibrio general computable (MEGC). La condición del ahorro externo modera la relación entre gasto público, crecimiento económico y bienestar social con efectos asimétricos para los distintos instrumentos de gasto. Bajo el contexto de ahorro externo irrestricto, un incremento en el gasto público conlleva a mayor crecimiento económico y bienestar social, aunque puede causar deterioro fiscal y mayor deficit en la balanza de pagos; de forma opuesta, sin variación del ahorro externo, el gasto público no influye sobre el crecimiento económico, ni sobre la bienestar social, solamente sobre la posición fiscal.
Volatilidad en los depósitos bancarios en Bolivia: GARCH simétrico y asimétrico
(Universidad Católica Boliviana San Pablo, 2024) Luis Fernando Escobar Caba; Roger Alejandro Banegas Rivero
La hipótesis del presente trabajo se fundamenta en que los modelos asimétricos de volatilidad autorregresiva condicional heterocedástico se ajustan en mejor medida al momento de analizar el riesgo de liquidez que los modelos simétricos. En un escenario de iliquidez en el sistema financiero, la reacción de los agentes económicos es sensible a las buenas y malas noticias de la coyuntura económica y política en el país, generando pánicos financieros que pueden dar lugar a un aumento de la demanda de efectivo (escenario de riesgo sistémico). Los resultados señalan que los modelos dinámicos de volatilidad asimétricos GJR (1,1) y APARCH (1,1) brindan mejor especificación para predecir la volatilidad de los depósitos a la vista y cajas de ahorro respectivamente. Así también, las estimaciones de los modelos simétricos se ajustan mejor a una distribución t de Student en las innovaciones, en comparación a la distribución normal y de error generalizado.
Volatility and Growth: the Role of Bank Financing in Bolivia
(2022) Roger Alejandro Banegas Rivero
The main purpose of the paper is to explain the propagation mechanisms from the credit volatility of banking system. For this, two questions are offered: What determines credit volatility? How does the volatility of bank system affect economic growth? The emphasis is given to a measure of variability of bank credit to the private sector, with differentiated effects between short and long term, by an estimate of one vector corrector error model (VCEM) for the period 1965-2017, based on the Bolivian economy. The results reveal the relevance of aggregate investment as a determinant of credit volatility, since it explains about 1/4 of the variance of bank financing. Therefore, for the first question, the aggregated investment and domestic savings cause credit volatility. Through the approach of one shock of credit volatility, negative fluctuations are generated on the level of savings up to -4%, investment (-3, -5%), trade opening (-2, -3%) and economic growth, between -1 and -5% from the second year to the mid-horizon. Likewise, the disturbances of the volatility in the credit supply could explain about 25% of the variance of economic growth in the medium time horizon, highlighting the importance in the role of bank financing in Bolivia.