Browsing by Autor "Sylvain Quoilin"

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A two-stage linear programming optimization framework for isolated hybrid microgrids in a rural context: The case study of the “El Espino” community
(Elsevier BV, 2019) Sergio Balderrama; Francesco Lombardi; Fabio Riva; Walter Canedo; Emanuela Colombo; Sylvain Quoilin
Bolivian interconnected power system
(2022) Marco Navia; R Lafuente; Sergio Balderrama; Sylvain Quoilin
Bridging the energy gap: A Global South perspective on achieving universal access through energy sufficiency
(Elsevier BV, 2025) Claudia Sanchez-Solis; Sergio Balderrama; Giacomo Crevani; Nicolò Stevanato; Sylvain Quoilin
Comparative Analysis of Dynamic and Linear Programming Energy Systems Models Applied to the Bolivian Power System
(2023) Alizon Huallpara; Marco Navia; Isaline Gomand; Sergio Balderrama; Matija Pavičević; Sylvain Quoilin
Energy system models are indispensable tools for energy planning and decision making. They identify the most cost-effective way of delivering energy to the final consumer. No one tool that addresses all the energy systemrelated issues. Every model has its own strengths and limitations and serves a different purpose. This paper aims to compare the capabilities of two different model formulations to model both the hydro scheduling and the short-term dispatch problems in hydro-dominated power systems. On the one hand, SDDP, a commercial model for hydrothermal generation scheduling with a representation of the transmission network, has been used by the Bolivian system operator for dispatch simulations. Conversely, Dispa-SET, an open-source unit commitment and economic dispatch model with mid-term hydrothermal coordination capability, has been used previously in several Bolivian case studies. In this paper, both models were applied to the same input dataset of the Bolivian electric system considering probabilistic results for 43 weather years from 1984 to 2021. SDDP optimizes the system under all weather years, while Dispa-SET optimises under one full year, for which 43 runs were made. The results show that SDDP generation, reservoir level and spillage fall into the ranges of Dispa-SET results. Some differences that are present mainly lie in the conceptualization of the methods of both models. SDDP prioritizes the dispatch of hydro units, while Dispa-SET, with a higher temporal and technical resolution, maximizes the use of non-dispatchable units such as variable renewables and run-of-river.
Electricity Demand Forecasting for Rural Communities in Developing Countries: Calibrating a Stochastic Model for the Bolivian Case
(2023) Claudia Sanchez-Solis; Pietro Di Betta; Nicolò Stevanato; Sergio Balderrama; Emanuela Colombo; Sylvain Quoilin
The world crusade to close the electrification gap is coming to an end in most regions of the world. In recent years the research in the area has concentrated on the development of planning methods to minimise the cost of implementation. Although successful, the lack of focus on the complex dynamics that govern electricity demand lead to over/under-sizing of technical solutions resulting in waste of resources and missed developing opportunities. In this sense, this paper aims to propose an electricity demand model for rural communities in Bolivia, based on an open-source bottom-up stochastic tool for load profile computation. The “energy sufficiency” concept is used to ensure that people’s basic needs for energy are met in all the analysed cases. Information from various sources, such as on-site surveys, databases and national reports were used to characterise the main geographical areas in Bolivia and the relative specific categories of users. Specific load curves generated with the model were used as inputs in a micro-grid sizing tool and the results were compared with an approach using a demand analysis in less detail. Main results show that the model obtained is capable of generating stochastic demand curves for single or multiple rural communities according to contextual particularities. Notably, the geographic location and the socioeconomic characteristics have a significant impact in the peak loads and the total demand. Considering small industries as an income generating activity can increase in the peak load by about 45%, consequently, there is an economic impact when investing in the solution.
Energy transition implications for Bolivia. Long-term modelling with short-term assessment of future scenarios
(Elsevier BV, 2023) Carlos A.A. Fernandez Vazquez; Thomas Vansighen; Miguel H. Fernandez Fuentes; Sylvain Quoilin
Energy Transition Planning with High Penetration of Variable Renewable Energy in Developing Countries: The Case of the Bolivian Interconnected Power System
(Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute, 2022) Marco Navia; Renán A. Orellana; Sulmayra Zaráte; Mauricio Villazón; Sergio Balderrama; Sylvain Quoilin
The transition to a more environmentally friendly energy matrix by reducing fossil fuel usage has become one of the most important goals to control climate change. Variable renewable energy sources (VRES) are a central low-carbon alternative. Nevertheless, their variability and low predictability can negatively affect the operation of power systems. On this issue, energy-system-modeling tools have played a fundamental role. When exploring the behavior of the power system against different levels of VRES penetration through them, it is possible to determine certain operational and planning strategies to balance the variations, reduce the operational uncertainty, and increase the supply reliability. In many developing countries, the lack of such proper tools accounting for these effects hinders the deployment potential of VRES. This paper presents a particular energy system model focused on the case of Bolivia. The model manages a database gathered with the relevant parameters of the Bolivian power system currently in operation and those in a portfolio scheduled until 2025. From this database, what-if scenarios are constructed allowing us to expose the Bolivian power system to a set of alternatives regarding VRES penetration and Hydro storage for that same year. The scope is to quantify the VRES integration potential and therefore the capacity of the country to leapfrog to a cleaner and more cost-effective energy system. To that aim, the unit-commitment and dispatch optimization problem are tackled through a Mixed Integer Linear Program (MILP) that solves the cost objective function within its constraints through the branch-and-cut method for each scenario. The results are evaluated and compared in terms of energy balancing, transmission grid capability, curtailment, thermal generation displacement, hydro storage contribution, and energy generation cost. In the results, it was found that the proposed system can reduce the average electricity cost down to 0.22 EUR/MWh and also reduce up to 2.22 × 106 t (96%) of the CO2 emissions by 2025 with very high penetration of VRES but at the expense of significant amount of curtailment. This is achieved by increasing the VRES installed capacity to 10,142 MW. As a consequence, up to 7.07 TWh (97%) of thermal generation is displaced with up to 8.84 TWh (75%) of load covered by VRES.
Evaluación del costo de electrificación rural en Bolivia para alcanzar el ODS 7
(2021) Miguel Fernández Fuentes; Evelyn Cardozo; Jaime Zambrana Vargas; Gabriela Peña; Sergio Balderrama; Claudia Sanchez-Solis; Alejandro Vázquez Soto; Sylvain Quoilin
El presente estudio cuantifica el desafío que supone el logro del objetivo 7 del desarrollo sostenible: Acceso a energía asequible y no contaminante (SDG7) en Bolivia. La solución planteada por el proyecto estima el costo total de provisión de energía eléctrica en todas las poblaciones de Bolivia, considerando factores socioeconómicos relevantes al realizar la planificación de la cobertura total para el país. El proyecto tiene dos etapas: la primera consiste en la recolección de datos y análisis de la demanda, así como de la percepción/visión de las poblaciones con relación en el uso de la energía; la segunda se centra en el análisis de la información y en la generación de resultados. La recolección de datos de campo que contemplan la demanda energética y el comportamiento en el uso y consumo de la energía se realizó en las comunidades de Raqaypampa (Cochabamba) y El Sena (Pando). Las mismas complementaron información obtenida con anterioridad de El Espino (Santa Cruz) y Toconao (Altiplano frontera con Chile). El Instituto de Investigaciones en Ciencias Sociales (INCISO), ENERGÉTICA y el Centro de Investigaciones en Energía (CIE), con la información recabada y los datos de indicadores del SDSN, estructuraron la composición estándar de una comunidad rural en Bolivia. Con esta información, el programa de generación de curvas de demanda RAMP simuló las demandas para poblaciones en las zonas bajas y altas de Bolivia, contrastando luego con diferentes tecnologías de electrificación; así se calculó el costo más eficiente de las soluciones encontradas. Finalmente, el costo para electrificar de manera total la población boliviana fue estimado y, en particular para electrificar al 100% de la población aislada y dispersa que alcanza a 587 millones de dólares, dando cobertura a 273 286 familias rurales.
Evaluating the Impact of Flexibilities from Heating and Electromobility in Chile’s Carbon Neutrality Pathway
(Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute, 2024) Abhishake Kundu; Francisco Flores; Carlos A.A. Fernandez Vazquez; Humberto Godoy; Sylvain Quoilin; Mónica Castañeda; Felipe Feijoo
Chile’s commitment to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050 underscores the need for robust decarbonization strategies across various sectors. Despite making progress in integrating renewable energy, sectors like transportation and residential heating, which are heavily reliant on fossil fuels, present significant opportunities for decarbonization. This study develops and evaluates pathways based on Chile’s Long-Term Energy Plan for assessing the effect of flexibilities from the power-to-heat and power-to-transportation sectors. Using EnergyPLAN, we model different scenarios of Chile’s 2050 energy plan that incorporate varying levels of individual heating and electromobility and assess their impacts on excess (surplus) electricity generation, different cost metrics, and renewable energy penetration. Findings indicate that increasing flexibility within the transportation sector through smart charging and vehicle-to-grid technologies can reduce excess generation, enhance grid stability, and lower operational costs. Flexibilities in individual heating, when coupled with more renewable energy capacity, show the potential to decrease reliance on fossil fuels significantly. The evidence of major efficiency gains in Chile’s 2050 energy plan, which is achievable by investing in heating and transportation flexibilities and further augmented by the country’s unique renewable potential, should interest stakeholders. Future work will focus on optimizing these technologies to address Chile’s specific infrastructure and regulatory challenges.
Exploring the tradeoff between Installed capacity and unserved energy in rural electrification
(2022) Alejandro Vázquez Soto; Sergio Balderrama; Evelyn Cardozo; Miguel Castro Fernández; Jaime Zambrana; Sylvain Quoilin
Generating high-resolution multi-energy load profiles for remote areas with an open-source stochastic model
(Elsevier BV, 2019) Francesco Lombardi; Sergio Balderrama; Sylvain Quoilin; Emanuela Colombo
Impact of Diesel generator limitations in the robust sizing of isolated hybrid Microgrids including PV and batteries
(2017) Sergio Balderrama; Walter Canedo; Vincent Lemort; Sylvain Quoilin
Impact of weather and hydro variability on the operation of the Bolivian power system.
(European Organization for Nuclear Research, 2022) Sulmayra Zaráte; Matija Pavičević; Sergio Balderrama; Mauricio Villazón; Sylvain Quoilin
This DataSet is the support for the study of the Impact of climate variability on the hydroelectric generation of the Bolivian electrical system, for which a hydrological model (WEAP) and unit commitment and optimal dispatch model (DispaSet) have been used. The study provides information about the flexibility of the electrical system, by the variation of the hydropower generation through the time series of historical inflows, in terms of power generation, total system costs, consumption, and carbon dioxide emissions.
Impact of weather and hydro variability on the operation of the Bolivian power system.
(2022) Sulmayra Zaráte; Matija Pavičević; Sergio Balderrama; Mauricio Villazón; Sylvain Quoilin
This DataSet is the support for the study of the Impact of climate variability on the hydroelectric generation of the Bolivian electrical system, for which a hydrological model (WEAP) and unit commitment and optimal dispatch model (DispaSet) have been used. The study provides information about the flexibility of the electrical system, by the variation of the hydropower generation through the time series of historical inflows, in terms of power generation, total system costs, consumption, and carbon dioxide emissions.
Implications of defining exogenous variables in Energy System Modeling with Integrated Assessment Models for transition planning
(Elsevier BV, 2026) Carlos A.A. Fernandez Vazquez; Francisco Flores; Ray A. Rojas Candia; Julio Pascual; Felipe Feijoo; Sylvain Quoilin
The sustainable transition of energy systems heavily relies on models that provide diverse scopes and applications. This study explores how two modeling approaches can work in tandem and complement each other to provide a more robust framework for analyzing the development of energy systems at the country level. Specifically, we consider an Integrated Assessment Model (GCAM), to evaluate alternative transition scenarios in a country from a multi-sectoral level, and an Energy System Model (PyPSA-Earth), to optimize the expansion of the power system with high geographical and temporal resolution. In this study, we present tailored versions of these tools to analyze Bolivia as the case study, GCAM-Bolivia and PyPSA-BO. Our method employs a unidirectional soft-linking process, using carbon budgets and projected energy demands as the connecting parameters between models. In this sense, GCAM-Bolivia is used to derive six alternative development scenarios based on emission reduction targets until 2050, while PyPSA-BO is used to optimize the electric system expansion, including generation, storage, and transmission capacities. Results show that, regardless of the scenario, solar PV is the dominant technology for capacity expansion in the future and that the growth of the electric sector appears to have a non-linear relation with the emission reduction targets for the energy sector, where only reduction targets above 40% trigger an intensive electrification process. In these cases, a significant expansion of storage and transmission capacities distributed across the country is required to provide flexibility in the system. • Two models are developed and adapted for the Bolivian case (GCAM-Bolivia and PyPSA-BO). • Soft-linking between GCAM and PyPSA models to assess decarbonization pathways. • Non-linear behavior between emissions reduction goals and electricity demand growth. • Solar energy and batteries play a crucial role, particularly in high decarbonization scenarios.
Incorporating high-resolution demand and techno-economic optimization to evaluate micro-grids into the Open Source Spatial Electrification Tool (OnSSET)
(Elsevier BV, 2020) Jenny Gabriela Peña Balderrama; S. Balderrama Subieta; Francesco Lombardi; Nicolò Stevanato; Andreas Sahlberg; Mark Howells; Emanuela Colombo; Sylvain Quoilin
Integrating climate-driven hydropower variability into long-term energy planning: A Bolivian case study under El Niño and La Niña scenarios
(Elsevier BV, 2025) Carlos A.A. Fernandez Vazquez; Santiago Mendoza Paz; Adele Hannotte; Sergio Balderrama; Pedro Crespo del Granado; Sylvain Quoilin
Long-term sizing of rural microgrids: Accounting for load evolution through multi-step investment plan and stochastic optimization
(Elsevier BV, 2020) Nicolò Stevanato; Francesco Lombardi; Giulia Guidicini; Lorenzo Rinaldi; Sergio Balderrama; Matija Pavičević; Sylvain Quoilin; Emanuela Colombo
Surplus energy in solar home systems as driver for bottom-up grids: When grids emerge from the edge
(2023) Ida Fuchs; Sergio Balderrama; Pedro Crespo del Granado; Sylvain Quoilin; Jayaprakash Rajasekharan
In this paper, surplus energy (SE) from solar home systems (SHS) with energy storage is studied from the perspective of bottom-up grids. The paper addresses two central research questions: 1) How much SE do SHS generate depending on system size parameters and load metrics? and 2) Can SE provide the basis for bottom-up grids in rural swarm electrification? We first analyze different SE profiles for different stochastic demands from three households with various PV and battery system sizes. Next, we analyze how these SE profiles can be used to supply additional households with lower or equal demand. We find that the SE is highly dependent on PV size and cannot be significantly reduced by increasing battery size. Demand profiles with high Peak to Average Power Ratio (PAPR) and low Load at Day Time Ratio (LDTR) are shown to have the highest levels of SE. Simulations show that households with PV and battery system can supply several other households with its SE only. This study shows excellent potential for developing a framework model for bottom-up grids through SHS sizing and bottom-up planning of interconnections in rural communities.
Surrogate models for rural energy planning: Application to Bolivian lowlands isolated communities
(Elsevier BV, 2021) Sergio Balderrama; Francesco Lombardi; Nicolò Stevanato; Gabriela Peña; Emanuela Colombo; Sylvain Quoilin