Brunei

Abstract

After a lockdown of nearly 18 months, Brunei Darussalam slipped into recession in 2021 due to fluctuations in hydrocarbon prices and the sharp decline in downstream industries’ output, which might reverse in 2022. The budgetary deficit almost quadrupled in absolute terms over 2020/21, bringing it to 19.7% of GDP, a level that is now unsustainable. The economic downturn has hit a population clinging to the comforts dispensed by a welfare monarchy. This is all the more so since employment woes were palpable well before the start of the pandemic. Moreover, the number of temporary residents (i.e. immigrant workers) decreased by 8.6% in less than two years. Adding to the gloom were the difficulties of the ASEAN Chairmanship, which placed the sultanate in the midst of great turbulence following the coup in Myanmar, especially since the Bruneian authorities did not hesitate—with their usual discretion—to increase diplomatic pressure on the Burmese junta, both directly and through ASEAN channels.