Mounu PremJuan F. VargasDaniel Mejía2026-03-222026-03-22202010.31235/osf.io/6gmpdhttps://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/6gmpdhttps://andeanlibrary.org/handle/123456789/83532Citaciones: 9Policies based on prohibition and repression to fight the war on drugs have largely failed in a variety of contexts. However, incentive-based policies may also fail and have unintended negative consequences if policymakers do not properly anticipate behavioral reactions. This is a particularly important concern in the case of policies announced prior to their implementation. In this paper, we show that a naive and untimely policy announcement generated an unprecedented escalation in cocaine production in Colombia, offsetting almost 20 years and billions of dollars of U.S.-backed efforts to stop drug production and cartel action.enIncentiveUnintended consequencesCartelVariety (cybernetics)Persistence (discontinuity)Production (economics)Action (physics)BusinessEconomicsPublic economicspreprint