Browsing by Autor "Guillermina Miranda Torrez"

Now showing 1 - 2 of 2

Extreme Fire Thresholds and Hyperseverity in Bolivia’s Forests (2002–2023): A Quantitative Assessment of Regulatory Effectiveness and Fire Governance
(2026) Guillermina Miranda Torrez
The fire regime in Bolivia has undergone a transformation toward systemic hyperseverity, challenging institutional response capacities. This study establishes operational thresholds using robust statistical criteria (percentiles P95 and P99 ) to characterize hypersevere events during the period 2009–2023 and critically assesses the effectiveness of the associated regulatory framework. The findings confirm a “heavy-tailed” distribution, with events such as those of 2010 and 2004 representing socio-ecological tipping points. A structural rupture in fire seasonality is identified, evidenced by the emergence of late extreme events in October and November 2023, which invalidates historical averages as a basis for public management. From the perspective of commons governance, the recurrence of exceedances beyond critical thresholds reveals a failure in institutional architecture, where certain policies have acted as catalysts for the expansion of the agricultural frontier. The study concludes that Bolivia faces a state of systemic risk that requires a transition from reactive suppression policies toward integrated landscape governance—eliminating regressive regulatory incentives and strengthening preventive territorial control.
Frost Characterization for the Altiplano, Valleys and Chaco Regions of Bolivia
(Services for Science and Education, 2024) Guillermina Miranda Torrez
The analysis focused on frost events in the Altiplano, Valles, and Chaco regions of Bolivia, with an emphasis on sub-zero temperatures and related atmospheric patterns to identify the predominant type of frost. A retrospective, observational, and longitudinal design was employed to analyze minimum temperatures from nine meteorological stations between 2005 and 2019. Radiative frosts in the Altiplano showed stability in minimum temperatures from April to October, with low variability and the absence of outliers, while variability was higher in the Valles and Chaco regions. Frost events were more frequent and severe from May to August, with the Altiplano being the most affected region. Satellite imagery and atmospheric reanalysis data from 2010 to 2019 were used for the visual interpretation of atmospheric patterns. A mixed-method approach—quantitative for the statistical analysis of minimum temperatures and qualitative for image interpretation—identified 24 advection frost events between 2010 and 2019, primarily in July and August, associated with high-pressure systems over the Atlantic and Pacific. The Chaco region was the most affected by advection frosts, followed by the Altiplano and the Valles. These findings underscore the importance of spatial and temporal variability in frost occurrence and the need for regional strategies to manage climate risk. It is concluded that altitude, along with factors such as solar radiation, thermal inversion, and wind, is key in frost formation, with radiative frosts being the most common, although advection frosts are also significant, especially under cold front conditions.