Extreme Fire Thresholds and Hyperseverity in Bolivia’s Forests (2002–2023): A Quantitative Assessment of Regulatory Effectiveness and Fire Governance

Abstract

The fire regime in Bolivia has undergone a transformation toward systemic hyperseverity, challenging institutional response capacities. This study establishes operational thresholds using robust statistical criteria (percentiles P95 and P99 ) to characterize hypersevere events during the period 2009–2023 and critically assesses the effectiveness of the associated regulatory framework. The findings confirm a “heavy-tailed” distribution, with events such as those of 2010 and 2004 representing socio-ecological tipping points. A structural rupture in fire seasonality is identified, evidenced by the emergence of late extreme events in October and November 2023, which invalidates historical averages as a basis for public management. From the perspective of commons governance, the recurrence of exceedances beyond critical thresholds reveals a failure in institutional architecture, where certain policies have acted as catalysts for the expansion of the agricultural frontier. The study concludes that Bolivia faces a state of systemic risk that requires a transition from reactive suppression policies toward integrated landscape governance—eliminating regressive regulatory incentives and strengthening preventive territorial control.