ECONOMÍA INFORMAL EN BOLIVIA: ANÁLISIS, EVALUACIÓN Y CUANTIFICACIÓN EN BASE AL ENFOQUE MONETARIO DE LA DEMANDA DE EFECTIVO (PERIODO 1994-2014)
Abstract
La economía informal en Bolivia representa un conjunto de actividades de producción y comercialización que son subestimadas por las cuentas nacionales debido a que se desarrollan bajo circunstancias no controlables o en algunos casos abiertamente ilegales. En este contexto, es una oportunidad de desarrollar un enfoque que permita su cuantificación, utilizando un Modelo de Demanda de Efectivo, en base a series de tiempo de los veintiún últimos años. El presente trabajo estima que el tamaño de la economía informal en Bolivia se encuentra entre 54% y 63%, con una tendencia decreciente para la última década, que coincide con el último cambio de gobierno. Como fenómeno tiene una relevancia económica importante, por lo que merece un adecuado análisis y seguimiento.
The informal economy represents a set of production and marketing activities that are underestimated by national accounts because they are developed under uncontrollable circumstances or are openly illegal. In this context, it turns to be an opportunity to develop an approach that allows its quantification, using a Cash Demand Model, based on time series for the last twenty years. This paper estimates the size of the informal economy in our country around 54% and 63%, with a decreasing trend for the last decade, which happens to coincide with the last government change. As a phenomenon it has an important economic significance, and deserves a proper analysis and monitoring.
The informal economy represents a set of production and marketing activities that are underestimated by national accounts because they are developed under uncontrollable circumstances or are openly illegal. In this context, it turns to be an opportunity to develop an approach that allows its quantification, using a Cash Demand Model, based on time series for the last twenty years. This paper estimates the size of the informal economy in our country around 54% and 63%, with a decreasing trend for the last decade, which happens to coincide with the last government change. As a phenomenon it has an important economic significance, and deserves a proper analysis and monitoring.
Description
Vol. 2, No. 15