Incidencia de las variables de la Demanda Agregada sobre las Reservas Internacionales de Bolivia
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Abstract
Bolivia, que tras años de bonanza económica se encuentra actualmente en una compleja situación debido a la escasez de reservas internacionales, con un alto riesgo de inflación a futuro y ejerciendo considerable presión al sistema financiero boliviano y al Banco Central de Bolivia (BCB) ¿Cómo se llegó a esta situación? ¿Debería el gobierno y el banco central adoptar otro pensamiento económico? La investigación no pretende dar una respuesta absoluta a estas incógnitas, sino más bien utilizar herramientas estadísticas cuantificables como la regresión múltiple e indicadores económicos comúnmente utilizados como la demanda agregada, indicador ligado a la teoría económica keynesiana. Para de esta manera poder identificar la relación que las variables económicas tienen con la fluctuación histórica de las reservas internacionales netas (RIN), pudiendo esbozar en el proceso y en los resultados las áreas específicas a las cuales orientar los esfuerzos de la sociedad y el gobierno boliviano en sus futuros esfuerzos por revertir la crisis causada por la escasez de reservas. Se comprobará estadísticamente que el excesivo gasto público y el déficit en la balanza comercial han llevado al país a esta situación y que el proceso de corrección requiere una política de austeridad y del fortalecimiento del sector exportador. CLASIFICACIÓN JEL: EO1, E6, E12.
Bolivia, after years of economic prosperity now finds itself in a complex situation due to the shortage of foreign reserves, with a high risk of inflation and putting considerable pressure on the Bolivian financial system and Bolivia's Central Bank (BCB) ¿How did we reach this situation? ¿Should the government and the central bank adopt another economic thought? This investigation does not intend to give an absolute response to these questions, but rather to use quantifiable statistical tools such as multiple regression and commonly utilized economic indicators like aggregate demand, linked to Keynesian economic theory. So that it would be possible to identify the relationship between the economic variables and the historical foreign reserves fluctuation, being able to sketch during the process and trough the results, the specific areas that should be the target of Bolivian society and government's future efforts to revert the crisis caused by the shortage of foreign reserves. It will be statistically proven that the excessive government spending and the balance of trade deficit have plunged the country into this situation. Finally, that the correction process requires a policy of austerity and the strengthening of the exporting sector. JEL CLASSIFICATION: EO1, E6, E12.
Bolivia, after years of economic prosperity now finds itself in a complex situation due to the shortage of foreign reserves, with a high risk of inflation and putting considerable pressure on the Bolivian financial system and Bolivia's Central Bank (BCB) ¿How did we reach this situation? ¿Should the government and the central bank adopt another economic thought? This investigation does not intend to give an absolute response to these questions, but rather to use quantifiable statistical tools such as multiple regression and commonly utilized economic indicators like aggregate demand, linked to Keynesian economic theory. So that it would be possible to identify the relationship between the economic variables and the historical foreign reserves fluctuation, being able to sketch during the process and trough the results, the specific areas that should be the target of Bolivian society and government's future efforts to revert the crisis caused by the shortage of foreign reserves. It will be statistically proven that the excessive government spending and the balance of trade deficit have plunged the country into this situation. Finally, that the correction process requires a policy of austerity and the strengthening of the exporting sector. JEL CLASSIFICATION: EO1, E6, E12.
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No. 54