Fire danger estimation from MODIS Enhanced Vegetation Index data: application to Galicia region (north-west Spain)

Abstract

Galicia, in north-west Spain, is a region especially affected by devastating forest fires. The development of a fire danger prediction model adapted to this particular region is required. In this paper, we focus on changes in the condition of vegetation as an indicator of fire danger. The potential of the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) together with period-of-year to monitor vegetation changes in Galicia is shown. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), onboard the Terra satellite, was chosen for this study. A 6-year dataset of EVI images, from the product MOD13Q1 (16-day composites), together with fire data in a 10 × 10-km grid basis, were used. Logistic regression was used to assess the relationship between the percentage of fire activity and EVI variations together with period-of-year. The results show the ability of the model obtained to discriminate different levels of fire occurrence danger, with an estimation error of ~5%. This remote sensing technique may contribute to improving the efficiency of the currently used fire prevention systems.