La experiencia populista de los años ochenta
Abstract
A fines de 1982 Bolivia recuperaba la democracia después de un largo periodo de gobiernos, mayormente militares. El primer gobierno democrático, presidido por el Dr. Hernán Siles Zuazo, heredó de los gobiernos militares una economía muy deteriorada, marcada por la crisis de deuda externa. Durante los gobiernos militares los salarios reales cayeron significativamente y su recuperación fue una exigencia recurrente de los trabajadores organizados, base electoral del gobierno. Le fue muy difícil a Siles Zuazo arbitrar entre el ajuste macroeconómico y las demandas de su electorado. El populismo defensivo del gobierno fue incapaz de controlar las presiones sociales que afectaban al presupuesto fiscal y los crecientes déficit tuvieron que financiarse con emisión monetaria. La inflación resultante culminó en hiperinflación, y se acompañó de desabastecimientos generalizados y mercados negros. El Producto Interno Bruto cayó sustancialmente. La Central Obrera Boliviana que desdeñaba las restricciones fiscales y de balanza de pagos, con su carrera salarialista fue una responsable mayor del desastre económico. La hiperinflación se paró con un drástico y ortodoxo programa de saneamiento fiscal, que debilitó en el camino a la Central Obrera Boliviana.
In late 1982 Bolivia returned to democracy, after a long period of mostly military governments. The first democratic government, presided by Dr. Hernán Siles Suazo, inherited of the military governments a very deteriorated economy, marked by the external debt crisis. Also, during the military governments real wages had declined considerably and organized labor, which was the main political support of the democratic government, fought very forcefully for their recovery. Siles Zuazo found very difficult to reconcile macroeconomic adjustment with the demands of his electorate. The government's defensive populism was unable to cope with the mounting social pressures that worsened the fiscal deficits: These deficits were financed printing money. The resulting inflation, which ended up in a hyperinflation, was moreover accompanied by food shortages and black markets. GDP fell substantially. The Central Confederation of Workers, disdainful of fiscal and balance of payments constraints, embarked itself in a wage race, which over time became a major culprit of the economic disaster. The hyperinflation was stopped with a drastic and orthodox program of stabilization, with the side effect of weakening politically the organizations of workers.
In late 1982 Bolivia returned to democracy, after a long period of mostly military governments. The first democratic government, presided by Dr. Hernán Siles Suazo, inherited of the military governments a very deteriorated economy, marked by the external debt crisis. Also, during the military governments real wages had declined considerably and organized labor, which was the main political support of the democratic government, fought very forcefully for their recovery. Siles Zuazo found very difficult to reconcile macroeconomic adjustment with the demands of his electorate. The government's defensive populism was unable to cope with the mounting social pressures that worsened the fiscal deficits: These deficits were financed printing money. The resulting inflation, which ended up in a hyperinflation, was moreover accompanied by food shortages and black markets. GDP fell substantially. The Central Confederation of Workers, disdainful of fiscal and balance of payments constraints, embarked itself in a wage race, which over time became a major culprit of the economic disaster. The hyperinflation was stopped with a drastic and orthodox program of stabilization, with the side effect of weakening politically the organizations of workers.
Description
No. 12