Photovoltaic/battery system sizing for rural electrification in Bolivia: Considering the suppressed demand effect

Abstract

Rural electrification programs usually do not consider the impact that the increment of demand has on the reliability of off-grid photovoltaic (PV)/battery systems. Based on meteorological data and electricity consumption profiles from the highlands of Bolivian Altiplano, this paper presents a modelling and simulation framework for analysing the performance and reliability of such systems. Reliability, as loss of power supply probability (LPSP), and cost were calculated using simulated PV power output and battery state of charge profiles. The effect of increasing the suppressed demand (SD) by 20% and 50% was studied to determine how reliable and resilient the system designs are. Simulations were performed for three rural application scenarios: a household, a school, and a health centre. Results for the household and school scenarios indicate that, to overcome the SD effect, it is more cost-effective to increase the PV power rather than to increase the battery capacity. However, with an increased PV-size, the battery ageing rate would be higher since the cycles are performed at high state of charge (SOC). For the health centre application, on the other hand, an increase in battery capacity prevents the risk of electricity blackouts while increasing the energy reliability of the system. These results provide important insights for the application design of off-grid PV-battery systems in rural electrification projects, enabling a more efficient and reliable source of electricity.