Profitability Analysis of a Wind Generation Project in Bolivia Using the Monte Carlo Method

Abstract

In this work a calculation that allows to analyze the profitability of a 51 MW wind generation project is made. It is based on a similar project developed in Bolivia in order to diversify the energy matrix. Parameters such us sale prices of the electricity in the wholesale electric market, investment costs, peration and maintenance costs, wind characteristics at the turbine location, amount of energy generated and bank financing are considered. These parameters allow a calculation of the Net Present Value (NPV) as realistic as possible for 20 years of operation of the wind farm. In a complementary manner the returns obtained are evaluated probabilistically using the Monte Carlo method as an analysis tool.