Understanding the water-ecosystem nexus in the Inter-Andean region of Bolivia – a synergistic, historical and complex connection

Abstract

Climate change poses a major threat to vulnerable regions, necessitating the development of adaptive strategies to ensure a sustainable future. To achieve sustainability, a deeper understanding of ecosystems and their nexus with climate is needed. Moreover, the interconnection between mountains and valleys demonstrate the synergies of water services in these two zones. Mountain regions, which function as critical water sources for downstream users, are particularly vulnerable and should be prioritized in adaptation strategies. These areas play a central role in water production, storage, and distribution, rendering their resilience essential for regional sustainable water management. Remote sensing products, such as MODIS and GMET, provide valuable tools for monitoring ecosystem dynamics and their interconnection with climatic variables. Precipitation emerges as the key driver influencing ecosystem responses. Our analysis reveals that vegetation indicators, NDVI and EVI, exhibit a lag by approximately one month in response to changes in precipitation. Seasonal-Trend decomposition (STL) confirms a strong correlation in the trend component: wet events typically trigger ecosystem responses after about one month. Furthermore, both wet and dry extreme events, significantly influence ecosystem development and their capacity to deliver services. Climate change scenarios indicate that future extremes will predominantly be wet rather than dry. This suggests an increase in the frequency and intensity of precipitation events by 2050, raising the risk of flooding and associated socio-ecological challenges. Such extremes can disrupt vegetation dynamics in EVI and NDVI indicators which may reflect a reduction in plant productivity and altering the dynamics of ecosystem services. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for designing resilient integrated water and ecosystem management strategies that safeguard both human and environmental well-being in the Inter - Andean region of Bolivia.