Evolution of Road Freight Transport in Spain (2012–2024): An Econometric Analysis

Abstract

<title>Abstract</title> Freight road transport is a vital component of Spain's economic competitiveness and territorial cohesion, enabling the efficient flow of goods both domestically and internationally. In this context, the sector has demonstrated significant adaptability and resilience following the 2008 economic crisis, with sustained growth from 2015 onward, temporarily disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. A SWOT analysis identified key strengths, such as a well-developed logistics infrastructure, alongside persistent weaknesses, notably a shortage of professional drivers. Strategically, opportunities were found in the sector’s internationalization, while rising operational costs were highlighted as major threats. Forecasting through a SARIMA model indicated an upward trend in transported volumes, particularly in international flows. Furthermore, a mean comparison test revealed statistically significant differences in the evolution of industrial versus agricultural freight transport, with the latter showing greater stability. In 2024, the sector recorded a 2.6% growth, primarily driven by export activity. Environmental sustainability, digitalization, and alignment with evolving European regulations emerge as critical factors shaping the sector’s future trajectory.