Pandemic risks in PPPs: comparative analysis within developing countries

Abstract

Globally, Public-private partnerships (PPPs) become a widely adopted method for advancing large-scale infrastructure projects. However, the inherent uncertainties and risks associated with these projects represent a significant managerial challenge, particularly when confronted with unforeseen events such as those triggered by COVID-19. This paper aims to identify and assess risk associated with the pandemic in PPPs in developing nations through a specific form of mixed-methods research, an embedded multiple-case study, involving the PPP programs in two developing countries in Central Asia and Latin America. Through a comprehensive analysis of risk assessment (including probability, severity, and impact) and applying Kendall's concordance and Cronbach's alpha tests with the SPSS 26 tool, a comparative examination of these risks between the two countries is conducted. Complementary, the embedded cases were analyzed through the triangulation of project reports, governmental websites, SPV's websites, and interviews. The findings reveal variations in risk perception and priorities, with less mature PPP programs displaying higher risk aversion and concerns regarding project disruptions; and more developed programs seeking to address short-term liquidity challenges. Risk management strategies are proposed for PPP decision-makers to face unforeseen events more effectively.