Groundwater Vulnerability in the Aftermath of Wildfires at the El Sutó Spring Area: Model-Based Insights and the Proposal of a Post-Fire Vulnerability Index for Dry Tropical Forests

Abstract

In response to the escalating frequency and severity of wildfires, this study carried out a preliminary assessment of their impact on groundwater systems by simulating post-fire effects on groundwater recharge. The study focuses on the El Sutó spring area in Santa Cruz, Bolivia, a region that is susceptible to water scarcity and frequent wildfires. The United States Geological Survey (USGS) Soil-Water-Balance model version 2.0 was utilized, adjusting soil texture and infiltration capacity parameters to reflect the changes induced by wildfire events. The findings indicated a significant decrease in groundwater recharge following a hypothetical high-severity wildfire, with an average reduction of approximately 39.5% in the first year post-fire. A partial recovery was modeled thereafter, resulting in an estimated long-term average reduction of 10%. Based on these results, the El Sutó spring was provisionally classified as having high vulnerability shortly after a wildfire and moderate vulnerability in the extended period. Building on these model-based impacts, a preliminary Fire-Related Forest Recharge Impact Score (FRIS) was proposed. This index is grounded in soil properties and recharge dynamics and is designed to assess hydrological vulnerability after wildfires in dry tropical forests. Although these findings remain exploratory, they offer a predictive framework intended to guide future studies and inform strategies for managing wildfire impacts on groundwater resources.