Retiro de estímulos monetarios en EE.UU. y la simulación de algunos efectos sobre las economías de Latinoamérica
Abstract
La incertidumbre respecto al futuro de las políticas fiscal y monetaria en EE.UU. ha perturbado el comportamiento de los mercados financieros y cambiarios internacionales. Luego de diversos anuncios, en 2014 la Reserva Federal estadounidense decidió iniciar el retiro gradual de sus estímulos monetarios, surgiendo voces de alerta sobre la supuesta fragilidad de América Latina. En esa línea, el presente documento examina y simula para un grupo de economías de la región (Brasil, Chile, Colombia y Perú), a partir de la calibración de un Modelo de Equilibrio General Dinámico Estocástico, la ocurrencia de los siguientes eventos: a) endurecimiento en las condiciones de financiamiento/tasas de interés internacionales más altas y b) mayor demanda externa. De las simulaciones se puede deducir, en forma general, que una eventual recuperación de la economía de EE.UU. puede generar una caída en la brecha del producto, acompañada de menores presiones inflacionarias, dado un incremento en la tasa de interés internacional. Sin embargo, una mayor demanda externa, producto de mencionada recuperación, generaría en la región un incremento de la brecha del producto y presiones inflacionarias. El efecto final sobre el producto e inflación dependerá de cuál de los dos efectos es más importante y sobre la capacidad de reacción y fundamentos de cada economía.
Uncertainty about the future of fiscal and monetary policies in the United States has disrupted the behavior of international exchange and financial markets. After several announcements, in 2014 the US Federal Reserve decided to begin the gradual removal of monetary stimulus, generating voices of warning about the supposed fragility of Latin America economies. In this sense, this paper examines and simulates those effects on a group of economies in the region (Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Peru). For that purpose, a calibrated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model is employed, and the following events are analyzed: a) tightening of financing conditions/higher international interest rates; and b) greater external demand. From the simulations, we can deduce that an eventual recovery of the U.S. economy can generate a fall in the output gap accompanied by minor inflationary pressures in Latin American countries, given an increase in international interest rates. However, increased external demand, as a consequence of this recovery, would generate a rebound in the output gap and inflationary pressures in the region. The final effect on GDP and inflation will depend on which of the two effects is more important and the ability to react as well as the fundamentals of each economy.
Uncertainty about the future of fiscal and monetary policies in the United States has disrupted the behavior of international exchange and financial markets. After several announcements, in 2014 the US Federal Reserve decided to begin the gradual removal of monetary stimulus, generating voices of warning about the supposed fragility of Latin America economies. In this sense, this paper examines and simulates those effects on a group of economies in the region (Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Peru). For that purpose, a calibrated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model is employed, and the following events are analyzed: a) tightening of financing conditions/higher international interest rates; and b) greater external demand. From the simulations, we can deduce that an eventual recovery of the U.S. economy can generate a fall in the output gap accompanied by minor inflationary pressures in Latin American countries, given an increase in international interest rates. However, increased external demand, as a consequence of this recovery, would generate a rebound in the output gap and inflationary pressures in the region. The final effect on GDP and inflation will depend on which of the two effects is more important and the ability to react as well as the fundamentals of each economy.
Description
No. 25