Demanda de exportaciones e importaciones en el Perú: estimación de elasticidades precio e ingreso, enero 2012-febrero 2022
Abstract
Usando data mensual del periodo enero 2012-febrero 2022 y un modelo autorregresivo de retardo distribuido con el posterior mecanismo de corrección del error, este estudio estima las elasticidades precio e ingreso de las exportaciones e importaciones reales en el Perú, considerando a Estados Unidos como el socio comercial de referencia. Los resultados revelan que: (i) únicamente el flujo de exportación real (total, tradicional y no tradicional) aumenta significativamente durante la crisis Covid-19 (marzo 2020-febrero 2022); (ii) la elasticidad ingreso del comercio real es positiva en el corto plazo, y negativa en la mayoría de flujos a largo plazo. Sin embargo, no se registra un consenso para la elasticidad precio; (iii) existe una relación bidireccional en el comercio real, generándose mayor exportación vía la importación de bienes de consumo, insumos y bienes de capital.
Using monthly data for the period January 2012-February 2022 and a distributed lag autoregressive model with the subsequent error correction mechanism, this study estimates the price and income elasticities of real exports and imports in Peru, considering the United States as the baseline trading partner. The results show that: (i) only the flow of real exports (total, traditional and non-traditional) increases significantly during the Covid-19 crisis (March 2020-February 2022); (ii) the income elasticity of real trade is positive in the short run, and negative -in most flows- in the long run. However, there is no consensus for the price elasticity; (iii) there is a bidirectional relationship in real trade, generating higher exports through imports of consumer goods, inputs and capital goods. Classification/clasificación JEL: F14, F41, C22.
Using monthly data for the period January 2012-February 2022 and a distributed lag autoregressive model with the subsequent error correction mechanism, this study estimates the price and income elasticities of real exports and imports in Peru, considering the United States as the baseline trading partner. The results show that: (i) only the flow of real exports (total, traditional and non-traditional) increases significantly during the Covid-19 crisis (March 2020-February 2022); (ii) the income elasticity of real trade is positive in the short run, and negative -in most flows- in the long run. However, there is no consensus for the price elasticity; (iii) there is a bidirectional relationship in real trade, generating higher exports through imports of consumer goods, inputs and capital goods. Classification/clasificación JEL: F14, F41, C22.
Description
No. 38