Sistema de monitoreo meteorológico y alerta temprana de sequía en zonas semiáridas (municipio de Pasorapa) para los horizontes temporales de 1, 3 y 6 meses
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RevActaNova.
Abstract
Resumen: La sequía afecta negativamente a los cultivos, el ganado y a la población en el municipio de Pasorapa en el Departamento de Cochabamba, Bolivia. Se hizo uso del modelo autorregresivo de media móvil (ARMA) en el programa Excel para realizar un pronóstico de la sequía. Los datos de precipitación y temperaturas fueron obtenidos del Servicio Nacional de Meteorología e Hidrología (SENAMHI) 1990 a 2019. Se calculó: Índice de Precipitación Estandarizado (SPI), Anomalías de Precipitación Mensual (MPA), Anomalías Mensuales de Temperatura (MTA), Índice de Aridez (IA), Índice de Evaporación de Precipitación Estándar (SPEI) e Índice de Vegetación de Diferencia Normalizada (NDVI) para conocer el estado de la vegetación. Con los resultados se obtiene gráficos de monitoreo de la sequía y con el modelo (ARMA) los gráficos de pronóstico de sequía para los horizontes temporales de 1, 3 y 6 meses. El horizonte de 1 mes, muestran temporadas cortas de sequía y de humedad en un mismo año; el horizonte de 3 meses muestra poca variación en los resultados pronosticados contra los observados; el horizonte de 6 meses muestra excesivas temporadas de sequía de hasta 3 años de duración. La anomalía de la temperatura presenta valores cercanos a su media histórica cuando la anomalía de precipitación es mayor.
Abstract: Drought negatively affects crops, livestock and the population in the municipality of Pasorapa in the Department of Cochabamba, Bolivia. The autoregressive moving average model (ARMA) was used in the Excel program to make a drought forecast. Precipitation and temperature data were obtained from the National Meteorological and Hydrological Service (SENAMHI) from 1990 to 2019. The following were calculated: Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Monthly Precipitation Anomalies (MPA), Monthly Temperature Anomalies (MTA), Aridity Index (IA), Standard Precipitation Evaporation Index (SPEI) and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) to know the state of the vegetation. The results are used to obtain drought monitoring graphs and with the (ARMA) model, drought forecast graphs for the time horizons of 1, 3 and 6 months. The 1-month horizon shows short dry and wet seasons in the same year; the 3-month horizon shows little variation in the predicted results versus the observed ones; the 6-month horizon shows excessive dry seasons of up to 3 years duration. The temperature anomaly presents values close to its historical mean when the precipitation anomaly is greater.
Abstract: Drought negatively affects crops, livestock and the population in the municipality of Pasorapa in the Department of Cochabamba, Bolivia. The autoregressive moving average model (ARMA) was used in the Excel program to make a drought forecast. Precipitation and temperature data were obtained from the National Meteorological and Hydrological Service (SENAMHI) from 1990 to 2019. The following were calculated: Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Monthly Precipitation Anomalies (MPA), Monthly Temperature Anomalies (MTA), Aridity Index (IA), Standard Precipitation Evaporation Index (SPEI) and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) to know the state of the vegetation. The results are used to obtain drought monitoring graphs and with the (ARMA) model, drought forecast graphs for the time horizons of 1, 3 and 6 months. The 1-month horizon shows short dry and wet seasons in the same year; the 3-month horizon shows little variation in the predicted results versus the observed ones; the 6-month horizon shows excessive dry seasons of up to 3 years duration. The temperature anomaly presents values close to its historical mean when the precipitation anomaly is greater.
Description
Vol. 11, No. 3