Contraste de la condición Marshall-Lerner y la presencia de la Curva J para el caso boliviano durante el periodo 2003-2019
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rlde
Abstract
El objetivo del presente estudio es analizar el efecto del movimiento del tipo de cambio real multilateral sobre las exportaciones e importaciones para el caso boliviano. Para tal propósito, usando datos del primer trimestre del año 2003 hasta el cuarto trimestre del año 2019, se estiman modelos de vectores autorregresivos con corrección de errores, con la finalidad de contrastar el cumplimiento de la condición Marshall-Lerner y la presencia de la curva J. Los resultados encontrados no apoyan el cumplimiento de la condición Marshall-Lerner ni la presencia de la curva J para el caso boliviano. Por otra parte, se identifica que los bienes exportados que responden positivamente a una depreciación del tipo de cambio real son la madera y el estaño. Y los bienes importados que responden negativamente a una depreciación del tipo de cambio real son los bienes intermedios y materias primas para el sector agrícola, y bienes de capital para la industria y equipos de transporte.
The aim of this document is to analyze the effect of the movement of the multilateral real exchange rate on exports and imports for the Bolivian case. For this purpose, using data from the first quarter of 2003 to the fourth quarter of 2019, autoregressive vector models are estimated with error correction, in order to calculate price elasticity's of demand for exports and imports for different aggregate and disaggregated categories of goods. This allows us to verify the fulfillment of the Marshall-Lerner condition and the presence of the J curve. The results found support neither the fulfillment of the Marshall-Lerner condition nor the presence of the J curve for the Bolivian case. On the other hand, the exported goods that respond positively to a depreciation of the real exchange rate are wood and tin. While the imported goods that respond negatively to a depreciation of the real exchange rate are intermediate goods and raw materials for the agricultural sector, and capital goods for industry and transport equipment.
The aim of this document is to analyze the effect of the movement of the multilateral real exchange rate on exports and imports for the Bolivian case. For this purpose, using data from the first quarter of 2003 to the fourth quarter of 2019, autoregressive vector models are estimated with error correction, in order to calculate price elasticity's of demand for exports and imports for different aggregate and disaggregated categories of goods. This allows us to verify the fulfillment of the Marshall-Lerner condition and the presence of the J curve. The results found support neither the fulfillment of the Marshall-Lerner condition nor the presence of the J curve for the Bolivian case. On the other hand, the exported goods that respond positively to a depreciation of the real exchange rate are wood and tin. While the imported goods that respond negatively to a depreciation of the real exchange rate are intermediate goods and raw materials for the agricultural sector, and capital goods for industry and transport equipment.
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No. 37