Integrating climate change impact modelling and local stakeholder participation for water resources management on the Katari River Basin, Bolivia

Abstract

The Katari River Basin (KRB) is increasingly vulnerable to climate change, which affects water availability, water quality, and ecosystems. Economic activities are amplifying these issues by increasing water demand and pollution. Local indigenous communities are particularly impacted by these challenges, which arise from a combination of climate change effects, pollution, and poor water management practices. The absence of clear strategies for adaptation or mitigation further exacerbates these vulnerabilities. This study integrates impact modelling with a participatory framework for water resource management, the Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis (CRIDA). It combines climate projections from regional climate models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), hydrological modelling using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT+), and stakeholder engagement across diverse sectors of the basin. This approach allows to identify present and future challenges in the KRB and establishes adaptation pathways to reduce vulnerabilities. The first phase of the implementation of the CRIDA framework involved a workshop where maps were created by stakeholders highlighting challenges such as droughts, floods, water pollution, erosion, and solid waste transport. Collaborative discussions fostered empathy and a shared commitment to identifying solutions. Furthermore, modelling results indicate drying trends during the dry season and intensified wet periods, heightening risks of droughts, floods, and water scarcity. These findings, shared with stakeholders, enabled them to anticipate how current challenges may evolve and to develop informed strategies for resilience. This work establishes a critical foundation for adaptive water management by incorporating stakeholder insights and informed decision-making. Future discussions as part of CRIDA between local communities, municipal governments, and Bolivia’s Ministry of Environment and Water will benefit from this shared understanding of the KRB’s climate risks, challenges, and potential adaptation solutions. Moreover, the developed hydrological model will serve as a ‘’stress-testing’’ tool, whereby proposed solutions can be evaluated to find the most effective one.