Crecimiento económico y transición demográfica: un modelo y el caso colombiano de los siglos XIX y XX

Abstract

This paper presents the adaptation and use of a Lucas’s model (Lucas, 2002) on economic growth, demographic transition and accumulation of human capital to interpret several demographic and macroeconomic developments in Colombia in the 19th and 20th centuries. The exercise shows the relevance of the model. However, also its limitations become evident. Outstanding among these is one: contrary to what predicts the model, the Colombian marginal productivity of human capital fell in the second half of the 20th century.