Chronicle of a death foretold: Lepanthes nasariana (Orchidaceae, Pleurothallidinae), a newly described high-Andean orchid facing a worst-case climate change scenario

Abstract

Newly discovered species are increasingly found to be threatened. For some, their formal description may already foretell their extinction, a phenomenon we here term the "Nasar Effect." This phenomenon is inspired by the tragic fate of Santiago Nasar, the protagonist of Gabriel García Márquez's Chronicle of a Death Foretold, whose impending death is known to everyone but himself. The Nasar Effect is particularly evident in climate-vulnerable ecosystems, where species may be projected for extinction based on dramatic climate-driven habitat loss. We illustrate the "Nasar Effect" through the description of a new orchid species, <i>Lepanthes nasariana</i> (Lepanthes subsect. Breves), endemic to the cloud forests and páramos of the Western and Central Andes of Colombia, between 2,800 and 3,600 m elevation. The species inhabits mossy branches in shaded, humid environments and is most similar to <i>L. mefueensis</i>, from which it differs by its oblong-lanceolate leaves, falcate petal lobes, and narrowly ovate lip blades with an inflexed appendix, among other characters. Based on its current extent of occurrence (27,502 km²) and area of occupancy (12,775 km²), <i>L. nasariana</i> is preliminarily assessed as Least Concern (LC) following the IUCN Red List guidelines. However, species distribution models projected to 2090 under the SSP5-8.5 scenario indicate a 96% loss of suitable habitat, which would qualify the species as Critically Endangered (CR) under Criterion A3(c). Without immediate and concerted global efforts to mitigate emissions, <i>L. nasariana</i> exemplifies the potential fate of many species described from climate-vulnerable ecosystems, such as the high Andean mountains, where they may already be on a predestined short path to extinction.