Typhoon exposure and co-vulnerability in Philippine abaca (Musa textilis) and forest biodiversity landscapes

Abstract

Intensifying tropical cyclones threaten linked socio-ecological systems. The Philippine abaca (Musa textilis), comprising >85% of global supply, is concentrated in the world's most typhoon-prone landscapes, yet its coupled vulnerability with endemic forest biodiversity remains unquantified. We develop a novel framework to map where climate hazard, livelihood dependence, and conservation priority intersect. Using 45 years of typhoon data (1980-2025), we integrate metrics for abaca cultivation and forest biodiversity to create the first high-resolution Co-Vulnerability Index for any Philippine island. We reveal that the highest-risk zones are concentrated within protected area networks. Here, typhoon exposure drives 48% of the risk, followed by biodiversity value (33%) and abaca livelihoods (20%). This critical finding, that formal protection coincides with peak vulnerability, challenges the view of protected areas as passive refuges. It instead underscores their necessary role as active platforms for integrated climate adaptation, providing a scalable targeting tool for cyclone-prone regions worldwide.