A Model for Internet Traffic Growth

Abstract

A simple model that let us predict the doubling time of Internet traffic is presented. The growth of this traffic depends on three factors, that is the doubling time of the number of users that are online, the doubling time of the time that they spend online and the doubling time of the bandwidth provided to the end user by telecommunication networks. The first and the second depend primarily on marketing strategies while the last one depends on Moore's Law. In 2006 in Europe these three doubling times led to an expected doubling time for the traffic on the Internet of roughly 1.2 years. The real value of the doubling time of the traffic of a group of European Internet Exchanges agrees well with the expected value.

A simple model that let us predict the doubling time of Internet traffic is presented. The growth of this traffic depends on three factors, that is the doubling time of the number of users that are online, the doubling time of the time that they spend online and the doubling time of the bandwidth provided to the end user by telecommunication networks. The first and the second depend primarily on marketing strategies while the last one depends on Moore's Law. In 2006 in Europe these three doubling times led to an expected doubling time for the traffic on the Internet of roughly 1.2 years. The real value of the doubling time of the traffic of a group of European Internet Exchanges agrees well with the expected value.