Towards Low-Carbon Energy Systems: The Case of Bolivia Until 2035

Abstract

Energy is vital to reduce poverty and improve social and economic development. For more than a century, modern economies have based their growth on fossil fuels, which has led to global warming, environmental pollution, and social problems. In accordance with the Paris Agreement (2015), governments have committed to evaluating their energy systems to seek appropriate solutions to support their decarbonization and keep global warming well below 2 o C. In order to achieve this objective, developing countries are making considerable efforts, among which is considered a shift to the use of renewable energy sources to satisfy their growing demand. Despite the current development and planning for the sector, there is room for improvement within the long-term planning and evaluation of energy systems. This paper analyses the difference between fossilbased and renewable-based growth in terms of economics, technical and environmental effects in Bolivia. To do so, all the country's energy sectors, including electricity, heat, and mobility, are covered and optimized through the open-source energy system modeling framework EnergyScope. Results showed a sustainable energy scenario in 2035, which accounted for 66% of renewable share and 44.64 e/tCO 2-eq. related to a compensation value for the difference with the business-as-usual scenario based on future government plans. This work demonstrated that a Bolivian energy system with a high share of renewable resources is possible, leading to energy sovereignty addressing climate change.