El impacto de la formalidad sobre las ganancias de las microempresas en Bolivia: análisis de la heterogeneidad
Abstract
Evidencia reciente sugiere que las ganancias de las microempresas en Bolivia mejoran si éstas son formales. Esto ocurre sólo cuando se trata de empresas que tienen entre 2 y 5 trabajadores, mientras que en el caso de las pequeñas y grandes microempresas ocurre lo contrario (McKenzie y Sakho, 2010). Sin embargo, como la mayor parte de la literatura empírica sobre este tema, las estimaciones están basadas en fuertes supuestos sobre las características no observadas. Si los beneficios de la formalidad varían entre firmas, y estas variaciones influyen la decisión de ser formal, los estimadores tradicionales están sesgados (Heckman y Vytlacil, 2007). En este artículo se consideran estos elementos para estimar los efectos heterogéneos de la formalidad sobre las ganancias de las microempresas en Bolivia. Se encuentra remarcable heterogeneidad en las ganancias de la formalidad, desde -3% a 6%. El grupo de empresas con positivos efectos marginales corresponde a aquellas microempresas con alta probabilidad de registrarse. También se caracteriza a las empresas que probablemente se benefician por obtener el carácter de formales. Éstas corresponderían a grandes empresas que trabajan a grandes escalas.
Recent evidence suggests that formality improves micro-firms profits in Bolivia. This gain is only for firms with 2 to 5 workers, while smaller and larger firms would lose out by formalizing (McKenzie and Sakho, 2010). However, as much of the empirical literature on this topic, the estimations are based on strong assumptions about unobservables. If the returns to formality vary among firms and these variations influence selection into formality, traditional estimators are biased (Heckman and Vytlacil, 2007). In this paper we consider these elements to estimate the heterogeneous effects of formality on firm profits in Bolivia. We find remarkable heterogeneity in the returns to formality, from -3% to 6%. The group of firms with positive marginal effects from formality corresponds to those which are most likely to register. We also characterize the firms that likely benefit from having a formal status. These would correspond to large firms which work at big scales.
Recent evidence suggests that formality improves micro-firms profits in Bolivia. This gain is only for firms with 2 to 5 workers, while smaller and larger firms would lose out by formalizing (McKenzie and Sakho, 2010). However, as much of the empirical literature on this topic, the estimations are based on strong assumptions about unobservables. If the returns to formality vary among firms and these variations influence selection into formality, traditional estimators are biased (Heckman and Vytlacil, 2007). In this paper we consider these elements to estimate the heterogeneous effects of formality on firm profits in Bolivia. We find remarkable heterogeneity in the returns to formality, from -3% to 6%. The group of firms with positive marginal effects from formality corresponds to those which are most likely to register. We also characterize the firms that likely benefit from having a formal status. These would correspond to large firms which work at big scales.
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No. 17