Castigos en créditos consumo y deterioro de la capacidad de pago de familias peruanas (2023-2024)
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Abstract
El estudio analiza la evolución de los castigos de cartera en el crédito al consumo peruano durante 2023-2024, evaluando cómo la composición del portafolio, las condiciones del mercado y el comportamiento de los prestamistas se vinculan con la morosidad y las pérdidas crediticias. Con datos mensuales de la SBS, se examinan la morosidad, los castigos y la heterogeneidad entre productos (tarjetas y préstamos personales) y tipos de banco. El crédito al consumo, esencial para la inclusión financiera, enfrenta deterioros por información imperfecta, fricciones en la evaluación crediticia y choques macroeconómicos. La investigación, de enfoque cuantitativo, hipotético-deductivo y longitudinal, emplea indicadores de morosidad, montos castigados, número de clientes, saldos y tasas de interés. Los resultados muestran mayores castigos en 2024, concentrados en grandes bancos; morosidad máxima de 4,1 % en marzo y 3,2 % en diciembre; tarjetas como principal canal de estrés. El estudio aporta evidencia sobre castigos crediticios postpandemia.
The study analyzes the evolution of loan write-offs in Peruvian consumer credit during 2023-2024, assessing how portfolio composition, market conditions, and lender behavior are linked to delinquency and credit losses. Using monthly data from the SBS, it examines delinquency rates, charge-offs, and heterogeneity across products (credit cards and personal loans) and bank types. Consumer credit, a key driver of financial inclusion, faces deterioration due to imperfect information, frictions in credit assessment, and macroeconomic shocks. The research follows a quantitative, hypothetical-deductive, and longitudinal approach, employing indicators such as delinquency ratios, written-off amounts, number of clients, outstanding balances, and interest rates. The results show higher charge-offs in 2024, concentrated among large banks; peak delinquency of 4.1% in March and 3.2% in December; and credit cards as the main source of stress. The study provides evidence on post-pandemic credit write-offs.
The study analyzes the evolution of loan write-offs in Peruvian consumer credit during 2023-2024, assessing how portfolio composition, market conditions, and lender behavior are linked to delinquency and credit losses. Using monthly data from the SBS, it examines delinquency rates, charge-offs, and heterogeneity across products (credit cards and personal loans) and bank types. Consumer credit, a key driver of financial inclusion, faces deterioration due to imperfect information, frictions in credit assessment, and macroeconomic shocks. The research follows a quantitative, hypothetical-deductive, and longitudinal approach, employing indicators such as delinquency ratios, written-off amounts, number of clients, outstanding balances, and interest rates. The results show higher charge-offs in 2024, concentrated among large banks; peak delinquency of 4.1% in March and 3.2% in December; and credit cards as the main source of stress. The study provides evidence on post-pandemic credit write-offs.
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Vol. 5, No. 12