Vida y muerte durante el primer año de la pandemia COVID-19: un análisis de las diferencias entre países en los cambios en la cantidad y la calidad de vida
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Abstract
Este estudio realiza un análisis comparativo de los cambios en la cantidad y la calidad de vida durante el primer año de la pandemia COVID-19 para 124 países. Los cambios en la cantidad de vida se miden como años de vida perdidos por COVID-19, incluido el exceso de muertes no reportadas oficialmente como muertes por COVID-19. Los cambios en la calidad de vida están representados por el cambio promedio en la movilidad diaria, en comparación con una línea base anterior al COVID-19. Encontramos una correlación negativa significativa entre los dos, lo que significa que los países con mayores reducciones de movilidad son también los países con mayores pérdidas de años de vida. Calculamos que se perdieron alrededor de 48 millones de años de vida durante el primer año de la pandemia, lo que corresponde al 0.018% de todos los años de vida esperados. A modo de comparación, se pierden al menos dos veces más años de vida cada año debido a la mortalidad de niños por diarrea. Todos los días se generan alrededor de 28 millones de años de vida por el nacimiento de bebés, por lo que el primer año de la pandemia nos retrasó menos de dos días en términos de cantidad de vida. Los contratiempos en términos de calidad de vida son de varios órdenes de mayor magnitud. Algunos países han sufrido una reducción de alrededor del 50% en la movilidad durante los últimos doce meses, con efectos devastadores en muchos aspectos de la calidad de vida. Estimamos que 1,200 millones de años de calidad de vida han sido perdidos por las reducciones en movilidad, lo cual es 25 veces más que la cantidad de años perdidos por muertes de COVID-19 en el primer año de la pandemia.
This study carries out a cross-country analysis of changes in quantity and quality of life during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic for 124 countries. Changes in the quantity of life are measured as life years lost to COVID-19, including excess deaths not officially reported as COVID-19 deaths. Changes in quality of life are proxied by the average change in daily mobility, compared to a pre-COVID baseline. We find a significant negative correlation between the two, meaning that the countries with the biggest reductions in mobility are also the countries with the biggest losses of life years. We calculate that about 48 million life years were lost during the first year of the pandemic, corresponding to 0.018% of all expected life years. For comparison, at least double the amount of life years are lost every year due to children dying of diarrhea. About 28 million life years are created every day from babies being born, so the first year of the pandemic set us back less than two days in terms of quantity of life. The setbacks in terms of quality of life are several orders of magnitude larger. Some countries have suffered close to a 50% reduction in mobility sustained over 12 months, with devastating effects on many aspects of quality of life. We estimate that 1.2 billion quality life years were lost due to mobility reductions, which is 25 times as many as life years lost due to COVID-19 related deaths during the first year of the pandemic.
This study carries out a cross-country analysis of changes in quantity and quality of life during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic for 124 countries. Changes in the quantity of life are measured as life years lost to COVID-19, including excess deaths not officially reported as COVID-19 deaths. Changes in quality of life are proxied by the average change in daily mobility, compared to a pre-COVID baseline. We find a significant negative correlation between the two, meaning that the countries with the biggest reductions in mobility are also the countries with the biggest losses of life years. We calculate that about 48 million life years were lost during the first year of the pandemic, corresponding to 0.018% of all expected life years. For comparison, at least double the amount of life years are lost every year due to children dying of diarrhea. About 28 million life years are created every day from babies being born, so the first year of the pandemic set us back less than two days in terms of quantity of life. The setbacks in terms of quality of life are several orders of magnitude larger. Some countries have suffered close to a 50% reduction in mobility sustained over 12 months, with devastating effects on many aspects of quality of life. We estimate that 1.2 billion quality life years were lost due to mobility reductions, which is 25 times as many as life years lost due to COVID-19 related deaths during the first year of the pandemic.
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No. 35