Bolivianización, demanda de dinero y señoreaje en Bolivia: evidencia empírica y una propuesta teórica
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rlde
Abstract
En los últimos años, Bolivia ha experimentado un crecimiento importante en la cantidad de dinero, lo que, junto a una inflación controlada, han permitido alcanzar niveles elevados de señoreaje. En efecto, para el periodo 2002-2015 el señoreaje promedio fue del 2% del PIB; del cual 1.6% es atribuible a incrementos en los saldos reales de dinero de los agentes privados y solo el 0.4% atribuible al impuesto-inflación. En ese sentido, el presente trabajo examina los factores que han hecho posible este incremento en el señoreaje libre de inflación y responder a la interrogante de si Bolivia podrá mantener niveles altos de señoreaje. Para este efecto, se estima una función de demanda de dinero tipo Cagan que tome en cuenta también elementos propios de la economía boliviana. Los resultados muestran que el ingreso, las tasas de interés pasivas y la bolivianización financiera habrían contribuido en gran manera al incremento de la demanda de dinero, en especial desde 2006. Por otra parte, el impulso de la bolivianización a la demanda de dinero y señoreaje no cuenta con márgenes al encontrarse cerca de su límite superior. Finalmente, el documento presenta una propuesta teórica, que, a diferencia de una curva de Laffer-Bailey que relaciona inflación con señoreaje, propone una relación entre bolivianización y señoreaje.
In recent years, Bolivia has experienced a significant increase in the stock of money which, along with subdued inflation, have led to higher levels of seigniorage. In fact, during the period 2002-2015 the average ratio of seigniorage was about 2% of GDP (1.6% attributable to increases in the real money balances of private agents and 0.4% attributable to the inflation tax). In this sense, the present paper examines the factors that explain this increase in seigniorage without originating higher rates of inflation and analyzes whether Bolivia can maintain high levels of seigniorage in the future. For this purpose, a Cagan function of money demand is estimated taking into account intrinsic features of the Bolivian economy The results show that income, deposit interest rates and financial dedollarization would have contributed greatly to the increase in money demand of national currency especially since 2006. On the other hand, the boost of dedollarization to both, the demand for money and seignorage, is weak because it is near its upper limit. Finally the paper presents a theoretical proposal, which unlike a Laffer - Bailey curve that relates inflation to seigniorage, proposes a relationship between dedollarization and seigniorage.
In recent years, Bolivia has experienced a significant increase in the stock of money which, along with subdued inflation, have led to higher levels of seigniorage. In fact, during the period 2002-2015 the average ratio of seigniorage was about 2% of GDP (1.6% attributable to increases in the real money balances of private agents and 0.4% attributable to the inflation tax). In this sense, the present paper examines the factors that explain this increase in seigniorage without originating higher rates of inflation and analyzes whether Bolivia can maintain high levels of seigniorage in the future. For this purpose, a Cagan function of money demand is estimated taking into account intrinsic features of the Bolivian economy The results show that income, deposit interest rates and financial dedollarization would have contributed greatly to the increase in money demand of national currency especially since 2006. On the other hand, the boost of dedollarization to both, the demand for money and seignorage, is weak because it is near its upper limit. Finally the paper presents a theoretical proposal, which unlike a Laffer - Bailey curve that relates inflation to seigniorage, proposes a relationship between dedollarization and seigniorage.
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No. 27