Análisis de control sintético al impacto doméstico de la restricción a la exportación de carne en Bolivia
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Abstract
Este documento analiza el impacto de la política de restricción a las exportaciones de carne bovina establecida en Bolivia en 2008, a consecuencia de los efectos adversos del fenómeno de 'La Niña, sobre la oferta doméstica del mismo producto alimenticio. Para realizar nuestra estimación aplicamos el método de control sintético, con un panel de datos conformado por 128 países entre 1995 y 2013, incluido Bolivia, con información macroeconómica, comercial, de infraestructura y mediterraneidad, con el fin de construir un contrafactual sintético' para comparación con el país que permita aproximar el impacto de dicha política sobre los resultados del mercado interno del producto en cuestión. Empíricamente y en línea con similares estudios, encontramos que la implementación de esta política comercial restrictiva fue contraproducente a su objetivo de reabastecimiento paulatino del mercado doméstico de carne bovina. Argumentamos que la política de restricción a la exportación implicó un desincentivo para los productores ganaderos, ralentizando la recuperación de su actividad productiva posterior a los eventos climáticos adversos que motivaron su implementación.
This paper analyzes the impact of the restriction policy on beef exports applied in Bolivia in 2008, as a result of the adverse effects of the phenomenon of La Niña over the domestic supply of the same foodstuff. To carry out our estimations, we applied the Synthetic Control method with a data panel with 128 countries, including Bolivia between 1995 and 2013 including information on macroeconomic indicators, commercial, infrastructure and landlocked conditions, in order to construct a synthetic' counterfactual of comparison with Bolivia and then to approximate the impact of this policy over the results of the domestic market of the product. Empirically and as the conclusions of similar papers, we find that the implementation of this restrictive trade policy was counterproductive to its objective of gradually replenishing the domestic beef market. We argue that the export restriction policy implied a disincentive for beef producers, slowing the recovery of their productive activity after the adverse climatic events that motivated this policy implementation.
This paper analyzes the impact of the restriction policy on beef exports applied in Bolivia in 2008, as a result of the adverse effects of the phenomenon of La Niña over the domestic supply of the same foodstuff. To carry out our estimations, we applied the Synthetic Control method with a data panel with 128 countries, including Bolivia between 1995 and 2013 including information on macroeconomic indicators, commercial, infrastructure and landlocked conditions, in order to construct a synthetic' counterfactual of comparison with Bolivia and then to approximate the impact of this policy over the results of the domestic market of the product. Empirically and as the conclusions of similar papers, we find that the implementation of this restrictive trade policy was counterproductive to its objective of gradually replenishing the domestic beef market. We argue that the export restriction policy implied a disincentive for beef producers, slowing the recovery of their productive activity after the adverse climatic events that motivated this policy implementation.
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No. 27