Índice de riesgo por escasez hídrica en sistemas pecuarios del municipio El Choro, Bolivia

Abstract

El Choro Municipality, located in the lower basin of the transboundary TDPS water system, has experienced a significant decline in the flow of the Desaguadero River, particularly during the critical dry season from September to mid-December. This reduction has impacted water availability for livestock production. This study aims to identify the key factors determining the risk of water scarcity in livestock production in the municipality, which will support the development of effective adaptation measures. The methodology was based on the IPCC climate risk model and the impact chain method using composite indicators. Data were collected for 20 indicators categorized into Hazard, Exposure, and Vulnerability components, employing various techniques such as workshops, structured interviews, document review, and surveys conducted with a sample of producers selected through a cluster sampling technique. Data normalization, weighting, and aggregation were performed using arithmetic aggregation. The results indicate that the production systems in the Challacollo irrigation central face a high risk of water scarcity, while those in El Choro and Unificada present a medium risk. The critical factors identified include water and forage availability. This analysis highlights the urgent need to improve water and forage resource management in the municipality to mitigate risks associated with climate change.