Uso y validez de indicadores climáticos locales como herramientas de pronósticos adaptados a la realidad Andina
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RIIARn
Abstract
La particular condición ecológica de la zona andina con alto riesgo agroclimático, por su altitud, riesgo de heladas y sequías y extrema localidad, sólo ha podido ser manejada en forma relativamente sostenible a través del conocimiento logrado a través de generaciones y de una intensa relación de observación e interacción del productor con su medio productivo, que han sido base para que la agricultura se desarrolle desde hace siglos en forma relativamente exitosa. Al presente factores externos de cambio tanto ecológico como social afectan la sostenibilidad, requiriéndose un adecuado sistema de pronósticos y predicción climática, adaptados localmente y orientados a reducir los riesgos de eventos extremos climáticos. Una de las bases para ello, sería que se aumente la credibilidad que los sistemas convencionales de observación climática tienen hacia los sistemas de observación local y tradicional de los productores y para ello se han dado pasos para validar las observaciones de indicadores climáticos usados por los productores con la validación preliminar de dos de ellos.
The particular ecological condition of the Andes with elevated agroclimatic risk, due to its altitude, risk of frost and drought and extreme unique locality, has been relatively sustainably managed only through the knowledge gained with generations and intense relationship of observation and interaction between the producerand its production environment, which in turn has been the basis for agriculture to develop for centuries in relatively successfully manner. Nowadays, external changing and shaping factors both ecological and social are affecting the sustainability, requiring an adequate system of forecasting and climate prediction locally adapted and aimed at reducing the risks of extreme weather events. A basis for this, would be to increase the credibility that conventional systems have towards local and traditional climate observation systems that producers follow and for that we have taken steps to validate the observations of climate indicators used by producers looking for a preliminary validation of two of them.
The particular ecological condition of the Andes with elevated agroclimatic risk, due to its altitude, risk of frost and drought and extreme unique locality, has been relatively sustainably managed only through the knowledge gained with generations and intense relationship of observation and interaction between the producerand its production environment, which in turn has been the basis for agriculture to develop for centuries in relatively successfully manner. Nowadays, external changing and shaping factors both ecological and social are affecting the sustainability, requiring an adequate system of forecasting and climate prediction locally adapted and aimed at reducing the risks of extreme weather events. A basis for this, would be to increase the credibility that conventional systems have towards local and traditional climate observation systems that producers follow and for that we have taken steps to validate the observations of climate indicators used by producers looking for a preliminary validation of two of them.
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Vol. 1, No. 1