Una revisión a la Curva de Phillips en Bolivia
Abstract
El presente documento realiza una investigación empírica exploratoria sobre el estado de la pendiente de la Curva de Phillips para la economía boliviana con datos trimestrales, para el periodo entre 1992T2-2019T4, empleando el Método Generalizado de Momentos (GMM) con regresiones recursivas. Para tal efecto, se estimó una brecha de producto consistente con la teoría económica. Se encuentra que la brecha del producto tiene un efecto positivo y significativo sobre la inflación en el corto plazo, por lo que la Curva de Phillips se cumple. Más aún, se habría fortalecido el vínculo entre la inflación y el ciclo económico en los últimos años. Si bien la inercia inflacionaria es el principal determinante en la formación de precios, la importancia de las expectativas aumentó con el tiempo. Por su parte, el efecto del sector externo disminuyó en el último lustro.
This paper conducts exploratory empirical research on the status of the slope of the Phillips curve for the Bolivian economy with quarterly data, for the period between 1992Q2-2019Q4, using the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) with recursive regressions. For this purpose, an output gap consistent with economic theory was estimated. The results show that the output gap has a positive and significant effect on inflation in the short term, so the Phillips Curve does hold. Furthermore, the link between inflation and the business cycle has been strengthened in recent years. Although inflationary inertia is the main determinant in price formation, the importance of expectations increased over time. The effect of the external sector decreased in the last five years.
This paper conducts exploratory empirical research on the status of the slope of the Phillips curve for the Bolivian economy with quarterly data, for the period between 1992Q2-2019Q4, using the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) with recursive regressions. For this purpose, an output gap consistent with economic theory was estimated. The results show that the output gap has a positive and significant effect on inflation in the short term, so the Phillips Curve does hold. Furthermore, the link between inflation and the business cycle has been strengthened in recent years. Although inflationary inertia is the main determinant in price formation, the importance of expectations increased over time. The effect of the external sector decreased in the last five years.
Description
No. 35