Elasticidades tributarias dinámicas: evidencias a corto plazo y largo plazo en Bolivia (1990-2018)
Abstract
El objetivo del presente documento yace en la estimación de las elasticidades tributarias a largo y a corto plazo, de las recaudaciones tributarias y de algunos impuestos individuales en Bolivia, mediante un Mecanismo de Corrección de Error especificado para tomar en cuenta reacciones asimétricas de las elasticidades a corto plazo y de la velocidad de ajuste en torno al equilibrio de largo plazo. Además, en el presente documento se sistematizó la literatura pertinente. Empleando series trimestrales desde el primer trimestre de 1990 hasta el segundo trimestre de 2018, se realizaron las estimaciones para las recaudaciones totales sin IDH, IVA (mercado interno), IVA (importaciones), IT y GA. Las estimaciones, en su mayoría, muestran evidencias de respuestas asimétricas y elásticas de las recaudaciones tributarias a corto plazo (volátil), concluyendo en un sistema tributario mayormente progresivo a largo plazo con respuestas significativamente asimétricas (contracíclicas y procíclicas) a corto plazo.
The main objective of this paper lies over the estimation of tax revenue elasticities in the long-run and the short-run for Bolivian total tax revenue and by component through an Error Correction Mechanism including possible asymmetries of tax revenue elasticities in the short-run and asymmetries over the adjustment parameter. Also in this paper, the relevant literature was systematized. Using quarterly data of total tax revenue without hydrocarbons direct tax, VAT (domestic), VAT (import), Transaction Tax and Customs Tax. Most of the estimations shows asymmetric and elastic responses evidences of the tax revenue in the short-run (volatil) concluding, at most, in a progressive tax system in the long-run with significative asymmetric responses (countercyclical and procyclical) in the short-run.
The main objective of this paper lies over the estimation of tax revenue elasticities in the long-run and the short-run for Bolivian total tax revenue and by component through an Error Correction Mechanism including possible asymmetries of tax revenue elasticities in the short-run and asymmetries over the adjustment parameter. Also in this paper, the relevant literature was systematized. Using quarterly data of total tax revenue without hydrocarbons direct tax, VAT (domestic), VAT (import), Transaction Tax and Customs Tax. Most of the estimations shows asymmetric and elastic responses evidences of the tax revenue in the short-run (volatil) concluding, at most, in a progressive tax system in the long-run with significative asymmetric responses (countercyclical and procyclical) in the short-run.
Description
No. 31