Spatio-Temporal Evaluation of MSWEP, CHIRPS and ERA5-Land Reveals Regional-Specific Responses Across Complex Topography in Bolivia

Reliable precipitation estimates are critical for climate analysis and ecosystem management in regions with complex topography and limited ground-based observations. Bolivia, where the Andes, inter-Andean valleys, and Amazonian lowlands converge, presents sharp climatic heterogeneity that challenges both satellite retrievals and reanalysis products. This study evaluated three widely used datasets, MSWEP V2.2, CHIRPS V2, and ERA5-Land, against monthly station records from 1980 to 2022 to identify the most reliable precipitation estimations for hydrological and climate applications in five distinct regions. We applied a robust validation framework that integrates continuous and categorical performance metrics into a Combined Accuracy Index (CAI), providing a balanced measure of magnitude and event detection skill. Additionally, we implemented a conservative trend analysis with explicit correction for serial autocorrelation to ensure reliable identification of long-term changes. The results showed that MSWEP V2.2 consistently outperforms CHIRPS V2 and ERA5-Land across most regions, achieving the highest combined skill. In the Altiplano, MSWEP reached a CAI of 0.91, compared to CHIRPS (0.80) AND ERA5-Land (0.68). In the Valles region, MSWEP also led with 0.85, outperforming CHIRPS (0.79) and ERA5-Land (0.51). By contrast, CHIRPS V2 performed better in the Llanos (0.85) relative to MSWEP (0.82) and ERA5-Land (0.79). In the Chaco, MSWEP and CHIRPS performed similarly (0.80 and 0.81, respectively), while ERA5-Land scored 0.70. In the Amazonian lowlands, all three products performed well, with MSWEP ranking first (0.93), followed by ERA5-Land (0.88) and CHIRPS (0.86). ERA5-Land systematically overestimated precipitation across Bolivia, with annual biases above 36 mm month−1. Trend analysis revealed significant precipitation declines, particularly in the Llanos (MSWEP: −0.88 mm year−1; CHIRPS: −1.19 mm year−1; ERA5-Land: −0.90 mm year−1), while changes in the Altiplano, Valles and Amazonia were weaker or nonsignificant. These findings highlight MSWEP V2.2 as the most reliable dataset for Bolivia. The methodological framework proposed here offers a transferable approach to validate gridded products in other data-scarce and environmentally diverse regions.