Una Estimación del Desalineamiento Cambiario Real para Argentina 1980-2022
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Abstract
Ante las limitaciones metodológicas presentes en la mayoría de estudios sobre desalineamiento cambiario en Argentina, tales como la omisión del análisis de quiebres estructurales en las series o la falta de operatividad del concepto de tipo de cambio real de equilibrio (TCRE), este trabajo propone estimar para el periodo 1980-2022 el TCRE y con ello construir la serie del desalineamiento cambiario para este periodo. Para ello se emplea la metodología de cointegración ARDL, obteniéndose como determinantes significativos del TCR a los términos de intercambio, la deuda externa, al gasto público y la productividad relativas. Comparando con el TCR observado se obtiene una serie completa de desalineamiento para el periodo bajo análisis congruente con los episodios económicos acontecidos en el mismo. Se destaca la detección del atraso cambiario desde 2010 no pudiendo este ser revertido incluso con las devaluaciones de 2014 y 2015, y alcanzando su valor máximo post COVID-19. Los resultados sugieren mantener políticas fiscales, cambiarias y monetarias consistentes y sostenibles para garantizar la estabilidad y prevenir crisis económicas. CLASIFICACIÓN JEL: F31, F41, C22, 024, 054.
Given the methodological limitations present in most studies on exchange rate misalignment in Argentina, such as the omission of structural break analysis in the series or the lack of operationalization of the equilibrium real exchange rate (ERER), this paper proposes to estimate the REER for the period 1980-2022 and thereby construct the exchange rate misalignment series for this period. To do so, the ARDL cointegration methodology is used, with the relative terms of trade, external debt, public spending, and productivity being the significant determinants of the RER. Comparing this with the observed RER yields a complete series of misalignments for the period under analysis, consistent with the economic events that occurred during that period. It is worth highlighting the detection of an exchange rate lag since 2010, which could not be reversed even with the devaluations of 2014 and 2015, and which reached its peale after COVID-19. The results suggest maintaining consistent and sustainable fiscal, exchange rate, and monetary policies to ensure stability and prevent economic crises. CLASSIFICATION JEL: F31, F41, C22, O24, O54.
Given the methodological limitations present in most studies on exchange rate misalignment in Argentina, such as the omission of structural break analysis in the series or the lack of operationalization of the equilibrium real exchange rate (ERER), this paper proposes to estimate the REER for the period 1980-2022 and thereby construct the exchange rate misalignment series for this period. To do so, the ARDL cointegration methodology is used, with the relative terms of trade, external debt, public spending, and productivity being the significant determinants of the RER. Comparing this with the observed RER yields a complete series of misalignments for the period under analysis, consistent with the economic events that occurred during that period. It is worth highlighting the detection of an exchange rate lag since 2010, which could not be reversed even with the devaluations of 2014 and 2015, and which reached its peale after COVID-19. The results suggest maintaining consistent and sustainable fiscal, exchange rate, and monetary policies to ensure stability and prevent economic crises. CLASSIFICATION JEL: F31, F41, C22, O24, O54.
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No. 56