Modelos de Decisión Electoral y Perfiles de Votante en Colombia: Elecciones Presidenciales 2002: Models of Electoral Decision and Profiles of Voter in Colombia: Elections Presidential 2002

Abstract

This article is an analysis of the vote decision in the 2002 presidential election in Colombia . The theoretical framework is eclectic, with an emphasis upon the rational choice literature. The data are drawn from a national survey, and the methodology utilizes logistical regression techniques. We hypothesized that electoral behavior in fragile democracies, like Colombia 's, manifests distinct characteristics from those in more institutionalized democracies, but the analysis failed to confirm this hypothesis. Contextual variables were not related to the vote, except as manifested through candidate characteristics and campaign issues. Similar to results elsewhere, the variables that most impacted the vote for Alvaro Uribe or Horacio Serpa were related to candidate traits, leadership capacity and favorability, along with campaign issues. The data analysis consisted of the presentation of several logistical regression models, and a series of voter profiles that reveals the probability that a voter with certain characteristics will cast a ballot for either Serpa or Uribe.