Probando la condición Marshall-Lerner y Curva-J para el Perú: un análisis de cointegración multivariada
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rlde
Abstract
En el Perú, la balanza comercial ha jugado un papel protagónico en el desempeño económico, particularmente a partir del año 2002, en que empieza a registrar superávits. Es así que para el año 2018 se registró un superávit de US$ 7,049 millones. Este dinamismo del comercio internacional mantiene al comercio exterior como uno de los principales motores de la economía peruana. El objetivo del estudio es probar la condición Marshall-Lerner y la Curva-J para el Perú utilizando información mensual de los años 2000 a 2018 obtenida del Banco Central de Reserva del Perú (BCRP). Para el análisis se emplea la metodología de Johansen-Juselius y el Modelo Vector de Corrección de Error (MVCE). Los resultados revelaron el cumplimiento de la condición Marshall-Lerner para el largo plazo y, haciendo uso de los diagramas de impulso-respuesta, se confirma que no se cumple el fenómeno de la Curva-J en la economía peruana.
In Peru, the trade balance has played a leading role in economic performance, particularly since 2002, when it began to record surpluses, so that by 2018 there was a surplus of US$ 7,049 million. This dynamism of international trade keeps foreign trade as one of the main engines of the Peruvian economy. The objective of the study is to prove the Marshall-Lerner condition and the J-Curve for Peru using monthly information from the years 2000 to 2018 obtained from the Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP). For the analysis, the Johansen-Juselius methodology and the Error Correction Vector Model (MVCE) are used. The results revealed the compliance of the Marshall-Lerner condition for the long term and, by making use of impulse response diagrams, it is confirmed that the phenomenon of the J-Curve in the Peruvian economy is not fulfilled.
In Peru, the trade balance has played a leading role in economic performance, particularly since 2002, when it began to record surpluses, so that by 2018 there was a surplus of US$ 7,049 million. This dynamism of international trade keeps foreign trade as one of the main engines of the Peruvian economy. The objective of the study is to prove the Marshall-Lerner condition and the J-Curve for Peru using monthly information from the years 2000 to 2018 obtained from the Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP). For the analysis, the Johansen-Juselius methodology and the Error Correction Vector Model (MVCE) are used. The results revealed the compliance of the Marshall-Lerner condition for the long term and, by making use of impulse response diagrams, it is confirmed that the phenomenon of the J-Curve in the Peruvian economy is not fulfilled.
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No. 32