Convergencia regional y crecimiento económico en China 1978-2013. un análisis espacial
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Revista de coyuntura y perspectivas
Abstract
Resumen: El artículo estudia la convergencia y divergencia regional en China, desde 1978 hasta 2013, empleando las definiciones clásicas de sigma convergencia, beta convergencia y convergencia condicional, además de técnicas no paramétricas y espaciales de uso frecuente como ser el estadístico I de Moran, análisis Lisa y modelos econométricos espaciales: modelo autorregresivo espacial (SAR) y modelo de error espacial (SEM), así como medidas estáticas, como el indicador gamma, alpha, theil, coeficiente de variación ponderado y el índice de Herfindahl-Hirschman. Los resultados empíricos indican una disminución en la dispersión del ingreso per cápita para todo el periodo 1978-2013. Sin embargo, de manera robusta con los modelos econométricos espaciales y la mayor parte de los indicadores estáticos y dinámicos, se confirma un proceso de convergencia condicional significativa, para todo el periodo 1978-2013 y 1995-2013. Además, se revela la formación de clúster de convergencia en el crecimiento económico de las regiones de China.
Abstract: The article studies the regional convergence and divergence in China, from 1978 to 2013, using the classic definitions of sigma convergence, beta convergence and conditional convergence, as well as non-parametric and spatial techniques of frequent use such as Moran's I statistic, Lisa analysis and spatial econometric models: spatial autoregressive model (SAR) and spatial error model (SEM), as well as static measurements, such as the gamma, alpha, theil indicator, weighted variation coefficient and the Herfindahl-Hirschman index. The empirical results indicate a decrease in the dispersion of per capita income for the entire period 1978-2013. However, with the spatial econometric models and most of the static and dynamic indicators, a significant conditional convergence process is confirmed, for the entire period 1978-2013 and 1995-2013. In addition, the formation of a convergence cluster in the economic growth of the regions of China is confirmed.
Abstract: The article studies the regional convergence and divergence in China, from 1978 to 2013, using the classic definitions of sigma convergence, beta convergence and conditional convergence, as well as non-parametric and spatial techniques of frequent use such as Moran's I statistic, Lisa analysis and spatial econometric models: spatial autoregressive model (SAR) and spatial error model (SEM), as well as static measurements, such as the gamma, alpha, theil indicator, weighted variation coefficient and the Herfindahl-Hirschman index. The empirical results indicate a decrease in the dispersion of per capita income for the entire period 1978-2013. However, with the spatial econometric models and most of the static and dynamic indicators, a significant conditional convergence process is confirmed, for the entire period 1978-2013 and 1995-2013. In addition, the formation of a convergence cluster in the economic growth of the regions of China is confirmed.
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Vol. 4, No. 1